The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TSG Hoffenheim II v TSV 1860 München

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Prediction 34.92%2.86fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.03%34.84%34.81%37.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.602.7741.67%39.12%38.46%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSV 1860 München (Visit)

Prediction 39.32%2.54fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.63%39.39%39.41%40.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.332.352.4446.51%42.92%42.55%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.75%3.88fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -0.761%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%25.76%25.78%26.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.543.603.8032.05%28.23%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim II (Local): 34.92%; TSV 1860 München (Visit): 39.32%; Draw: 25.75%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -2.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.46%EV -3.27%E -1.18%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.61%EV -5.23%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.94%EV -5.22%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-27 17:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -3.97%E -1.44%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.71%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-27 17:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.50%EV -5.72%E -2.12%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.28%EV -4.05%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -2.13%E -0.561%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-27 15:24
LowVig.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.50%EV -5.72%E -2.12%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.28%EV -4.05%E -1.66%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.22%EV -2.13%E -0.561%K -0.761%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-27 15:25
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -5.72%E -2.12%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.59%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 15:34
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -7.46%E -2.82%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.75%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -8.57%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-27 17:47
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -7.46%E -2.82%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-27 17:39
Suprabets🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 34.46%EV -7.81%E -2.96%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-27 17:39
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -8.51%E -3.25%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.06%EV -6.41%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 15:35
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -8.51%E -3.25%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.06%EV -6.41%E -2.69%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 15:34
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -8.51%E -3.25%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:39
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -8.51%E -3.25%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -11.52%E -5.12%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-27 15:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.01%EV -7.19%E -3.05%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 15:34
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -7.59%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 15:44
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -9.86%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-27 15:35
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-27 15:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-27 15:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -9.55%E -4.15%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-27 15:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.52%E -5.12%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.52%E -5.12%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 16:19
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.52%E -5.12%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 16:20
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.21%E -3.54%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.52%E -5.12%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 16:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.95%E -4.30%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.24%EV -7.59%E -3.23%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -3.42%E -0.912%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 15:35
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.55%EV -12.70%E -5.08%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.27%EV -13.49%E -6.13%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.18%EV -15.01%E -4.55%K -6.53%G +0.000%15.8%2026-02-27 15:34
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.42%EV -12.70%E -5.08%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.11%EV -13.49%E -6.13%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.47%EV -16.30%E -5.01%K -7.24%G +0.000%16.2%2026-02-27 15:34
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.32%EV -14.45%E -5.90%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.63%EV -4.44%E -1.83%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-27 17:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:30
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:30
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:30
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:29
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -15.14%E -6.23%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -5.62%E -2.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -6.00%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 17:30
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.43%EV -16.19%E -6.75%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.55%EV -15.45%E -7.19%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.01%EV -12.43%E -3.66%K -5.18%G +0.000%17.6%2026-02-27 15:44
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.66%EV -16.19%E -6.75%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 38.69%EV -15.45%E -7.19%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.66%EV -19.65%E -6.30%K -9.27%G +0.000%20.2%2026-02-27 17:26
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.24%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.98%1.4%2026-02-27 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.24%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.98%1.4%2026-02-27 17:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.24%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.98%1.4%2026-02-27 17:40