Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Verl v FC Würzburger Kickers

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 17:00 UTC

Final: SC Verl 2–1 FC Würzburger Kickers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Verl (Local)

Prediction 46.24%2.16fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -4.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.53%46.27%46.42%48.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.951.952.0554.64%51.19%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Würzburger Kickers (Visit)

Prediction 28.90%3.46fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.507%
Kelly -0.718%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%28.95%28.66%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.173.133.4035.71%31.58%32.00%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.85%4.02fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -0.971%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.70%24.78%24.92%25.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.633.653.9130.30%27.54%27.40%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Verl (Local): 46.24%; FC Würzburger Kickers (Visit): 28.90%; Draw: 24.85%. For FC Würzburger Kickers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -1.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -8.05%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 13:45
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 13:44
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -5.20%E -2.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 13:45
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.89%EV -6.13%E -3.02%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.76%EV -4.33%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.35%EV -2.83%E -0.723%K -0.971%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 13:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.01%EV -6.13%E -3.02%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.65%EV -6.59%E -3.26%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.65%EV -6.59%E -3.26%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 11:55
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -6.59%E -3.26%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -13.29%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 13:44
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -6.59%E -3.26%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.49%EV -14.73%E -4.99%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-18 13:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -8.05%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 13:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 17:01
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -4.32%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 13:45
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.50%E -2.35%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-18 11:15
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -13.29%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-15 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -13.29%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-15 17:20
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -13.29%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-15 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.51%E -3.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -13.29%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-15 17:20
Suprabets🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.44%EV -9.36%E -4.78%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.90%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 24.67%EV -8.29%E -2.25%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-18 11:32
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.14%EV -9.36%E -4.78%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 28.17%EV -7.22%E -2.25%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 25.69%EV -12.52%E -3.56%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 13:20
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -4.32%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 08:45
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-18 11:54
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-18 10:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-18 10:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.83%E -5.04%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-18 10:30
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%EV -10.29%E -5.30%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%EV -10.29%E -5.30%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%EV -10.29%E -5.30%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 17:05
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -10.75%E -5.57%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -10.75%E -5.57%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -10.75%E -5.57%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 17:05
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -10.75%E -5.57%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -10.75%E -5.57%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -10.75%E -5.57%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 17:05
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -10.75%E -5.57%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.72%E -0.507%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -9.29%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 17:10
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -11.68%E -6.11%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-18 08:40
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.80%EV -11.68%E -6.11%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.83%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 13:18
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -13.53%E -7.23%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -7.50%E -2.35%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 08:45
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.01%EV -13.53%E -7.23%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -7.50%E -2.35%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-18 14:04
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 44.75%EV -13.53%E -7.23%K -15.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.89%EV -19.07%E -6.81%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.36%EV -17.99%E -5.45%K -7.82%G +0.000%19.5%2026-09-18 14:40
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 44.75%EV -13.53%E -7.23%K -15.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.89%EV -19.07%E -6.81%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.36%EV -17.99%E -5.45%K -7.82%G +0.000%19.5%2026-09-18 14:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.67%EV -14.45%E -7.81%K -17.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -6.06%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-13 17:05
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.61%EV -14.45%E -7.81%K -17.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.75%EV -13.29%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.64%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-18 08:40
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.51%EV -14.91%E -8.11%K -17.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -10.40%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.28%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-18 14:05
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.65%EV -15.38%E -8.40%K -18.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.64%EV -16.75%E -5.82%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-18 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-09-18 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-09-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-09-18 13:50