The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SC Fortuna Köln v Alemannia Aachen

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 12:03 UTC

Final: SC Fortuna Köln 1–1 Alemannia Aachen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Fortuna Köln (Local)

Prediction 25.79%3.88fair odd
EV +0.595%
Edge +0.153%
Kelly +0.205%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.93%25.69%25.95%27.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.623.603.9031.25%27.60%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alemannia Aachen (Visit)

Prediction 50.39%1.98fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -6.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.87%50.55%50.41%52.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.801.821.8758.82%55.55%54.95%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.82%4.20fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +0.725%
Kelly +0.943%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.93%23.76%23.65%26.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.723.654.3330.30%26.88%27.40%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Fortuna Köln (Local): 25.79%; Alemannia Aachen (Visit): 50.39%; Draw: 23.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 25.88%EV -5.34%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.19%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV +3.14%E +0.725%K +0.943%G +0.030%5.3%2026-08-15 11:50
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -7.79%E -4.26%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV +0.044%E +0.010%K +0.014%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 11:44
BetOnline.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -8.43%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.70%EV -6.79%E -3.67%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -2.34%E -0.570%K -0.754%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -8.43%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.70%EV -6.79%E -3.67%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -2.34%E -0.570%K -0.754%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 11:49
Suprabets🎯3.47I 28.82%NM 26.19%EV -10.50%E -3.02%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.64%EV -11.32%E -6.43%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -2.34%E -0.570%K -0.754%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 11:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV +0.595%E +0.153%K +0.205%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -10.82%E -6.11%K -14.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 11:55
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.79%E -3.67%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 11:45
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.43%EV -5.85%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.45%EV -7.29%E -3.96%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -8.29%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 11:50
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -5.78%E -3.09%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 11:39
theScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.30%E -5.17%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 11:45
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -12.83%E -7.42%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 11:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -12.83%E -7.42%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 11:55
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -7.79%E -4.26%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -10.68%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 11:44
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -9.30%E -5.17%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -10.68%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 11:34
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.05%EV -9.72%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.57%EV -14.34%E -8.44%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.38%EV -10.68%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-15 11:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -4.56%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.79%E -3.67%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -11.87%E -3.21%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 11:53
Virgin Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
TABtouch🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:05
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Svenska Spel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
ATG (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:04
LiveScore Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -0.694%E -0.180%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 11:05
PlayUp🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -8.43%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -8.30%E -4.56%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -13.06%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 11:55
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -4.56%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -6.79%E -3.67%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -14.25%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 11:50
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -4.56%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -6.79%E -3.67%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -14.25%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 11:50
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.58%EV -12.30%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.27%EV -12.83%E -7.42%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.16%EV -14.25%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-15 11:55
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.52%EV -17.46%E -5.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 49.91%EV -14.34%E -8.44%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%EV -14.25%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%17.9%2026-08-15 10:34
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.30%E -5.17%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -16.63%E -4.75%K -6.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.30%E -5.17%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -16.63%E -4.75%K -6.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -7.14%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.30%E -5.17%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -16.63%E -4.75%K -6.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -4.56%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -11.82%E -6.76%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -16.63%E -4.75%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-15 11:04
Bovada🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -3.27%E -0.873%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -7.79%E -4.26%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -19.01%E -5.59%K -7.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 11:48
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 25.96%EV -17.46%E -5.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 48.87%EV -14.34%E -8.44%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.17%EV -21.39%E -6.48%K -9.30%G +0.000%20.4%2026-08-15 11:49
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 25.96%EV -17.46%E -5.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 48.87%EV -14.34%E -8.44%K -20.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.17%EV -21.39%E -6.48%K -9.30%G +0.000%20.4%2026-08-15 11:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%0.9%2026-08-15 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%0.9%2026-08-15 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52%0.9%2026-08-15 11:55