The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rot-Weiss Essen v Erzgebirge Aue

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 57.07%1.75fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -6.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.35%57.05%57.19%58.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.611.621.6866.67%62.12%61.73%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Erzgebirge Aue (Visit)

Prediction 20.79%4.81fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -0.954%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.74%20.88%20.49%22.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.294.254.6026.32%23.34%23.53%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.14%4.52fair odd
EV +1.42%
Edge +0.310%
Kelly +0.396%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.78%22.07%22.32%24.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.024.004.5829.41%24.85%25.00%21.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 57.07%; Erzgebirge Aue (Visit): 20.79%; Draw: 22.14%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.68%EV -5.83%E -3.54%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.53%EV -8.13%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.78%EV +1.42%E +0.310%K +0.396%G +0.006%5.1%2026-03-14 12:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.12%E -2.45%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -2.57%E -0.583%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 12:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.12%E -2.45%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -2.57%E -0.583%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 12:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.43%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -4.39%E -0.954%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -2.57%E -0.583%K -0.755%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 12:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-14 12:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -4.39%E -0.954%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.00%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 12:05
Suprabets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.00%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 12:55
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.00%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 12:35
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -5.43%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -8.10%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 12:04
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -5.43%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -8.10%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 12:05
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -5.83%E -3.54%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -9.21%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 12:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.21%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 12:05
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.02%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.21%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 12:49
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.74%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -10.62%E -2.47%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -9.21%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 12:05
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -6.97%E -4.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 12:54
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.58%EV -10.97%E -7.03%K -19.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-14 12:05
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -16.86%E -4.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -16.86%E -4.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -16.86%E -4.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 12:40
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -12.68%E -8.29%K -23.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-14 12:05
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 55.70%EV -11.54%E -7.45%K -20.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -21.01%E -5.53%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.58%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-14 12:05
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -5.83%E -3.54%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30%EV -10.62%E -2.47%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 12:10
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 12:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 12:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 12:05
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 12:05
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.77%EV -14.39%E -9.60%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.01%EV -10.00%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.22%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.60%EV -12.68%E -8.29%K -23.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.79%EV -15.85%E -4.17%K -5.66%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-14 12:05
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 54.35%EV -12.68%E -8.29%K -23.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.88%EV -21.01%E -5.53%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.76%EV -22.50%E -6.43%K -9.00%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-14 12:43
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 55.61%EV -14.39%E -9.60%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.86%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.53%EV -24.71%E -7.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%19.9%2026-03-14 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-03-14 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-03-14 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-03-14 12:55