L’École des cotes

Rot-Weiss Essen v Erzgebirge Aue

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-14 13:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

41 opérateurs (11 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prévision 57.07%1.75cote équitable
EV -4.12%
Avantage -2.45%
Kelly -6.06%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.68

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.35%57.05%57.19%58.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.501.611.621.6866.67%62.12%61.73%59.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Erzgebirge Aue (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.79%4.81cote équitable
EV -4.39%
Avantage -0.954%
Kelly -1.22%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.74%20.88%20.49%22.72%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.804.294.254.6026.32%23.34%23.53%21.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 22.14%4.52cote équitable
EV +1.42%
Avantage +0.310%
Kelly +0.396%
Croissance +0.006%

avec la cote maximale 4.58

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.78%22.07%22.32%24.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.404.024.004.5829.41%24.85%25.00%21.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (41 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.65I 60.61%NM 57.68%EV -5.83%E -3.54%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.53%EV -8.13%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.78%EV +1.42%E +0.310%K +0.396%G +0.006%5.1%2026-03-14 12:45
LowVig.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.12%E -2.45%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -2.57%E -0.583%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 12:35
BetOnline.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.12%E -2.45%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -2.57%E -0.583%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 12:35
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.43%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -4.39%E -0.954%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -2.57%E -0.583%K -0.755%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 12:55
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-14 12:05
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -4.39%E -0.954%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.00%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 12:05
Suprabets1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.00%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 12:55
Betway1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.00%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 12:35
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -5.43%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -8.10%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 12:04
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -5.43%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.35%EV -8.10%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 12:05
Fanatics1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -5.83%E -3.54%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -9.21%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 12:30
Codere (IT)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.21%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 12:05
Bovada1.60I 62.50%NM 57.02%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.54%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.21%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 12:49
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 56.74%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -10.62%E -2.47%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -9.21%E -2.25%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 12:05
Coolbet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -6.97%E -4.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 12:54
theScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 57.58%EV -10.97%E -7.03%K -19.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-14 12:05
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -16.86%E -4.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 12:40
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -16.86%E -4.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 12:40
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -8.12%E -5.04%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -16.86%E -4.21%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 12:40
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -12.68%E -8.29%K -23.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -6.47%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-14 12:05
BoyleSports1.55I 64.52%NM 55.70%EV -11.54%E -7.45%K -20.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -21.01%E -5.53%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.58%EV -11.42%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-14 12:05
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -5.83%E -3.54%K -8.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30%EV -10.62%E -2.47%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 12:10
Casumo1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:05
Unibet (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Unibet (NL)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Virgin Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Grosvenor1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:05
LiveScore Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
ATG (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Svenska Spel1.64I 60.98%NM 55.52%EV -6.40%E -3.90%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.66%E -2.74%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 12:10
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 12:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 12:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 12:05
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-14 12:05
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 57.77%EV -14.39%E -9.60%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.01%EV -10.00%E -2.31%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.22%EV -13.64%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 56.60%EV -12.68%E -8.29%K -23.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.79%EV -15.85%E -4.17%K -5.66%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-14 12:05
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 54.35%EV -12.68%E -8.29%K -23.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.88%EV -21.01%E -5.53%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.76%EV -22.50%E -6.43%K -9.00%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-14 12:43
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 55.61%EV -14.39%E -9.60%K -28.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.86%EV -12.70%E -3.02%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.53%EV -24.71%E -7.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%19.9%2026-03-14 12:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-03-14 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-03-14 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.0%2026-03-14 12:55