Language:English
MSV Duisburg v VfL Osnabrück
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MSV Duisburg (Local)
Prediction 26.47%3.78fair odd
EV +3.22%
Edge +0.825%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.036%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%26.31%26.55%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.383.403.9032.05%29.59%29.41%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
VfL Osnabrück (Visit)
Prediction 45.08%2.22fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.24%45.13%45.06%46.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.042.052.1454.05%49.02%48.78%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.46%3.51fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -0.956%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.33%28.56%28.39%30.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.193.253.4034.48%31.38%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MSV Duisburg (Local): 26.47%; VfL Osnabrück (Visit): 45.08%; Draw: 28.46%. For MSV Duisburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV +3.22%E +0.825%K +1.11%G +0.036% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -9.84%E -4.92%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -8.94%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 16:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV +1.89%E +0.492%K +0.665%G +0.013% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.78%EV -6.24%E -3.00%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -8.09%E -2.50%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%EV -2.08%E -0.561%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.91%EV -3.53%E -1.65%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -6.10%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 16:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%EV -2.08%E -0.561%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.91%EV -3.53%E -1.65%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -6.10%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 16:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -2.08%E -0.561%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -12.10%E -6.20%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -14.63%E -4.88%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-07 16:35 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.61I 27.70%NM 25.20%EV -4.46%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 45.26%EV -9.39%E -4.67%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 29.54%EV -12.36%E -4.01%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-07 16:47 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -4.72%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -9.84%E -4.92%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.94%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -6.05%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -9.84%E -4.92%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.79%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-07 16:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.37%E -2.11%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.59%E -3.70%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.10%E -1.85%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-07 16:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.37%E -2.11%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.59%E -3.70%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-07 16:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -7.37%E -2.11%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -12.10%E -6.20%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.79%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -7.37%E -2.11%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -12.10%E -6.20%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.79%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -7.37%E -2.11%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -12.10%E -6.20%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.79%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -7.37%E -2.11%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -12.10%E -6.20%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.79%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.70%EV -7.37%E -2.11%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 45.50%EV -14.35%E -7.55%K -15.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.81%EV -17.48%E -6.03%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-04-07 16:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.69%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -7.59%E -3.70%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-07 16:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.69%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -7.59%E -3.70%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.69%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -7.59%E -3.70%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -10.02%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.59%E -3.70%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -3.25%E -0.956%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.02%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.84%E -4.92%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.94%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-07 16:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -10.02%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -6.24%E -3.00%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -14.63%E -4.88%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-07 16:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -10.02%E -2.95%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.52%EV -12.10%E -6.20%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.94%EV -17.48%E -6.03%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-04-07 16:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.66%E -3.84%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.94%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-07 16:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -12.66%E -3.84%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -12.10%E -6.20%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -11.79%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-07 16:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -15.31%E -4.78%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -7.59%E -3.70%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-07 16:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -15.31%E -4.78%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -7.59%E -3.70%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-07 16:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -15.31%E -4.78%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -7.59%E -3.70%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-07 16:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -16.63%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.34%E -2.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.52%E -2.31%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 26.58%EV -17.43%E -5.59%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 44.83%EV -16.60%E -8.98%K -19.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.60%EV -17.48%E -6.03%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 20.6% | 2026-04-07 16:53 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.51% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.51% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-04-07 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.51% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-04-07 16:55 |