Language:English
MSV Duisburg v 1. FC Saarbrücken
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MSV Duisburg (Local)
Prediction 42.29%2.36fair odd
EV -4.85%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%42.39%42.25%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.172.2550.00%46.40%46.08%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit)
Prediction 29.76%3.36fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -0.775%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.29%29.66%29.85%30.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.003.3035.71%33.07%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.95%3.58fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.624%
Kelly -0.873%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.89%27.96%27.90%29.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.243.303.5034.72%30.85%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MSV Duisburg (Local): 42.29%; 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit): 29.76%; Draw: 27.95%. For 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -1.78%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.85%E -2.16%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.24%EV -5.95%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -2.18%E -0.624%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 14:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.85%E -2.16%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.24%EV -5.95%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -2.18%E -0.624%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 14:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.78%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.00%EV -2.08%E -0.632%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.22%EV -5.54%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 12:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-08 15:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-08 12:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-08 12:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-08 12:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 41.99%EV -7.39%E -3.37%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-08 12:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.85%EV -7.81%E -3.58%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-08 04:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.77%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -4.98%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 14:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -1.78%E -0.540%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 12:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.57%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-08 12:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.57%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-08 15:17 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.57%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-08 15:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-08 15:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-08 13:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-08 13:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-08 13:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-08 13:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-08 15:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-08 15:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-08 15:14 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -10.35%E -4.88%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 28.64%EV -5.65%E -1.78%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 28.55%EV -11.13%E -3.50%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-08 15:02 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -11.19%E -5.33%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-08 14:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -11.19%E -5.33%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -16.16%E -5.39%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-08 15:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.25%EV -11.19%E -5.33%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.87%EV -18.95%E -6.54%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-03-08 15:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -15.42%E -7.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-03-08 12:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.60%EV -15.42%E -7.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.71%EV -16.66%E -5.95%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.69%EV -18.95%E -6.54%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 20.2% | 2026-03-08 13:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.52%EV -15.42%E -7.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.65%EV -16.66%E -5.95%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.83%EV -19.51%E -6.77%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 20.4% | 2026-03-08 15:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08% | 1.1% | 2026-03-08 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.68% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-03-08 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.68% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-03-08 15:10 |