Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

MSV Duisburg v 1. FC Saarbrücken

Início: 2026-03-08 15:30 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

41 casas de apostas (11 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

MSV Duisburg (Local)

Previsão 42.29%2.36odd justa
EV -4.85%
Vantagem -2.16%
Kelly -3.88%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
41.25%42.39%42.25%43.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.002.162.172.2550.00%46.40%46.08%44.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

1. FC Saarbrücken (Visitante)

Previsão 29.76%3.36odd justa
EV -1.78%
Vantagem -0.540%
Kelly -0.775%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.29%29.66%29.85%30.93%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.023.003.3035.71%33.07%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.95%3.58odd justa
EV -2.18%
Vantagem -0.624%
Kelly -0.873%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.89%27.96%27.90%29.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.883.243.303.5034.72%30.85%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: MSV Duisburg (Local): 42.29%; 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visitante): 29.76%; Empate: 27.95%. Para 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.36. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.30, com valor esperado de -1.78%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (41 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.85%E -2.16%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.24%EV -5.95%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -2.18%E -0.624%K -0.873%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 14:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.85%E -2.16%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.24%EV -5.95%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -2.18%E -0.624%K -0.873%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 14:35
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.78%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.00%EV -2.08%E -0.632%K -0.908%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.22%EV -5.54%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-08 12:10
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 15:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 12:09
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 12:09
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -6.96%E -3.17%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 12:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 41.99%EV -7.39%E -3.37%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 12:09
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.85%EV -7.81%E -3.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 04:15
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.77%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -4.98%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-08 14:50
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:40
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:39
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:40
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -8.23%E -3.79%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -6.38%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 14:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -1.78%E -0.540%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 12:54
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.57%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 12:05
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.57%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 15:17
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.57%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 15:25
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-08 15:25
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 13:35
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 13:40
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 15:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 15:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.08%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 15:14
Suprabets🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -10.35%E -4.88%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.64%EV -5.65%E -1.78%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.55%EV -11.13%E -3.50%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-08 15:02
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -11.19%E -5.33%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.73%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.77%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-08 14:50
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -11.19%E -5.33%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -16.16%E -5.39%K -8.08%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-08 15:24
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.25%EV -11.19%E -5.33%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.87%EV -18.95%E -6.54%K -9.97%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-08 15:24
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -15.42%E -7.71%K -15.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-08 12:54
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.60%EV -15.42%E -7.71%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.71%EV -16.66%E -5.95%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.69%EV -18.95%E -6.54%K -9.97%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-08 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.52%EV -15.42%E -7.71%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.65%EV -16.66%E -5.95%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.83%EV -19.51%E -6.77%K -10.38%G +0.000%20.4%2026-03-08 15:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (3)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-03-08 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.68%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%1.9%2026-03-08 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.68%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%1.9%2026-03-08 15:10