Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jahn Regensburg v 1. FC Saarbrücken

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 14:30 UTC

Final: Jahn Regensburg 0–1 1. FC Saarbrücken

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jahn Regensburg (Local)

Prediction 36.31%2.75fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.35%36.39%36.23%38.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.512.502.6644.44%39.88%40.00%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit)

Prediction 37.77%2.65fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.63%37.84%37.62%39.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.382.402.5545.45%42.07%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.393%
Kelly -0.534%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.32%25.77%26.15%27.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.523.503.8031.25%28.44%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jahn Regensburg (Local): 36.31%; 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit): 37.77%; Draw: 25.92%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.81%EV -3.42%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.80%EV -4.82%E -1.91%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.39%EV -6.42%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.00%EV -4.88%E -1.86%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.43%EV -4.82%E -1.91%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -7.97%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 14:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.00%EV -4.88%E -1.86%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.43%EV -4.82%E -1.91%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -7.97%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 14:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 13:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.46%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -4.09%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:19
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.24%EV -11.24%E -4.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -2.79%E -0.744%K -1.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-16 14:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -7.42%E -2.91%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.46%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 14:20
Suprabets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 35.73%EV -7.78%E -3.06%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 37.66%EV -8.97%E -3.72%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 26.61%EV -11.60%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:17
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.24%EV -8.51%E -3.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.28%EV -7.46%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 14:19
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.24%EV -8.51%E -3.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.28%EV -7.46%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -10.57%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 14:19
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -1.49%E -0.393%K -0.534%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 14:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -7.46%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 14:24
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -7.46%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:14
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:04
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.20%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -13.13%E -5.71%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -4.09%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-16 14:04
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -13.13%E -5.71%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -13.13%E -5.71%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:04
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -14.46%E -4.38%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-16 14:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -14.46%E -4.38%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-16 14:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -14.46%E -4.38%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-16 14:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.76%EV -9.96%E -4.02%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.90%EV -13.88%E -6.09%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-16 13:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -3.69%E -1.45%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -4.09%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:09
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -7.46%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:19
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.75%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.52%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-16 14:24
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 14:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 14:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 14:14
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 14:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -13.13%E -5.71%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -6.68%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 14:20
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.33%EV -12.86%E -5.36%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.75%EV -15.02%E -6.67%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.91%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-16 14:04
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.07%EV -12.86%E -5.36%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.47%EV -15.02%E -6.67%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.46%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-16 14:05
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.00%EV -16.49%E -7.17%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.68%EV -16.90%E -7.68%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.32%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%17.5%2026-08-16 14:15
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 36.99%EV -18.31%E -8.14%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 36.99%EV -15.02%E -6.67%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.01%EV -17.05%E -5.33%K -7.75%G +0.000%20.1%2026-08-16 14:18
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 36.99%EV -18.31%E -8.14%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 36.99%EV -15.02%E -6.67%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.01%EV -17.05%E -5.33%K -7.75%G +0.000%20.1%2026-08-16 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.66I 37.59%NM 36.95%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53%1.7%2026-08-16 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.13%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.41%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.0%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.13%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.41%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.0%2026-08-16 14:25