Language:English
FC Ingolstadt 04 v TSG Hoffenheim II
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local)
Prediction 46.28%2.16fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -4.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.00%46.33%46.31%47.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.951.952.0554.64%51.21%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit)
Prediction 29.06%3.44fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.353%
Kelly -0.501%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.49%29.02%28.94%30.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.123.103.4035.71%32.04%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.67%4.05fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -0.910%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.72%24.65%24.75%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.663.653.9129.41%27.30%27.40%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local): 46.28%; TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit): 29.06%; Draw: 24.67%. For TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -1.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -5.13%E -2.50%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.20%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.56%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.20%EV -5.60%E -2.74%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.56%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.14%EV -6.52%E -3.23%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.51%EV -2.95%E -0.882%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.35%EV -3.56%E -0.910%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.95%EV -6.52%E -3.23%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -6.52%E -3.23%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.97%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.20%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.20%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -7.45%E -3.72%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.83%E -4.28%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.20%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -9.30%E -4.74%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-16 16:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -9.30%E -4.74%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-16 16:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -9.30%E -4.74%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-16 16:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -1.20%E -0.353%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 16:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 16:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 16:16 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 16:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 16:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 16:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 28.72%EV -7.89%E -2.49%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-16 16:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -11.20%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -12.83%E -4.28%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.27%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.83%E -4.28%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -7.50%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.20%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.20%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.76%E -5.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.58%EV -10.22%E -5.27%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 28.33%EV -7.30%E -2.29%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -11.20%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-16 16:52 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.69%EV -11.15%E -5.81%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.24%EV -12.83%E -4.28%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -11.61%E -6.08%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -11.20%E -3.11%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-16 16:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.49%EV -11.61%E -6.08%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.96%EV -12.83%E -4.28%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -16.14%E -4.75%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.14%EV -13.00%E -6.92%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -9.92%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.28%EV -9.97%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-16 16:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.33%EV -15.32%E -8.37%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.44%EV -16.31%E -5.66%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.23%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-09-16 16:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 45.62%EV -15.32%E -8.37%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.82%EV -18.64%E -6.66%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.56%EV -16.14%E -4.75%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 45.62%EV -15.32%E -8.37%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.82%EV -18.64%E -6.66%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.56%EV -16.14%E -4.75%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-09-16 16:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.49% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.95% | 1.5% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.49% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.95% | 1.5% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.49% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.95% | 1.5% | 2026-09-16 16:55 |