Language:English
FC Ingolstadt 04 v Alemannia Aachen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local)
Prediction 41.91%2.39fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.64%41.91%41.92%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.172.182.2748.78%46.14%45.87%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alemannia Aachen (Visit)
Prediction 32.90%3.04fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.14%32.81%32.87%34.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.802.9040.00%36.33%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.19%3.97fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -0.782%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.24%25.27%25.21%26.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.573.603.8531.25%28.03%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Ingolstadt 04 (Local): 41.91%; Alemannia Aachen (Visit): 32.90%; Draw: 25.19%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -3.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.97%EV -4.86%E -2.14%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.96%EV -4.93%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 12:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.65%EV -5.28%E -2.34%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -5.92%E -2.07%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.65%EV -5.28%E -2.34%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.91%EV -5.92%E -2.07%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.60%E -1.59%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -3.01%E -0.782%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 07:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -6.79%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 07:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -8.05%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 07:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 07:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.96%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.01%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-04 07:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-04 08:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.68%EV -8.63%E -3.96%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 33.28%EV -10.20%E -3.73%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 25.03%EV -8.55%E -2.36%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -10.57%E -2.98%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-04 10:28 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -11.18%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 07:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -11.18%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 07:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -11.18%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 07:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -11.18%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 07:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -11.98%E -5.71%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -7.89%E -2.82%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.98%E -5.71%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 14:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.98%E -5.71%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.18%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.39%EV -11.98%E -5.71%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.05%EV -13.49%E -5.13%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.56%EV -14.35%E -4.22%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.03%EV -12.82%E -6.16%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.99%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-04 14:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 41.57%EV -14.08%E -6.87%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.09%EV -17.76%E -7.10%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.35%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 40.64%EV -14.08%E -6.87%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.32%EV -17.76%E -7.10%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.04%EV -19.38%E -6.06%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 20.0% | 2026-09-04 08:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 40.64%EV -14.08%E -6.87%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.32%EV -17.76%E -7.10%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.04%EV -19.38%E -6.06%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 20.0% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.76% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.50% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.74% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.76% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.50% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.74% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.76% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.50% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.74% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |