Language:English
Erzgebirge Aue v Wehen Wiesbaden
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Erzgebirge Aue (Local)
Prediction 37.78%2.65fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.78%37.72%37.70%38.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.402.5544.44%41.56%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wehen Wiesbaden (Visit)
Prediction 35.35%2.83fair odd
EV -5.97%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.36%35.41%35.31%36.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.552.552.6643.48%39.19%39.22%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.87%3.72fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -0.910%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.71%26.86%26.99%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.343.353.6034.72%29.98%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Erzgebirge Aue (Local): 37.78%; Wehen Wiesbaden (Visit): 35.35%; Draw: 26.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -3.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.28%E -0.910%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-19 23:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.36%EV -5.97%E -2.25%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.03%EV -6.50%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 07:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.33%EV -7.39%E -2.82%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-21 10:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.33%EV -7.39%E -2.82%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-21 10:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.96%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.33%E -2.39%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.31%E -2.12%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-22 12:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -8.10%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 12:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -7.39%E -2.82%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-19 17:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -7.39%E -2.82%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-19 17:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-21 06:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -8.10%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-19 17:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-23 12:07 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.63%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-20 22:03 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -7.39%E -2.82%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -14.02%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-19 18:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -7.39%E -2.82%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -14.02%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-19 18:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -7.39%E -2.82%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -14.02%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-19 18:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 37.57%EV -9.70%E -4.06%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -11.34%E -3.44%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -8.10%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-21 06:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.63%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-19 17:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -8.10%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -12.68%E -3.90%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-19 18:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -8.10%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -12.68%E -3.90%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-19 18:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.87%EV -10.45%E -4.41%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -8.10%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -12.68%E -3.90%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-19 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.87%EV -10.45%E -4.41%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -8.10%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -12.68%E -3.90%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-19 18:45 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 37.50%EV -10.83%E -4.59%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 35.26%EV -11.28%E -4.49%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -12.68%E -3.90%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-21 18:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.29%EV -11.21%E -4.77%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.63%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -5.96%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-21 11:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -13.10%E -5.69%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.63%E -4.65%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -8.65%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-19 17:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.09%EV -13.10%E -5.69%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -13.40%E -5.47%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.15%EV -9.99%E -2.98%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-19 17:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.79%EV -13.10%E -5.69%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.47%EV -13.40%E -5.47%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.74%EV -12.68%E -3.90%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-04-19 17:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 37.87%EV -14.99%E -6.66%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.50%EV -15.16%E -6.32%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.63%EV -14.02%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-04-20 06:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 36.98%EV -14.99%E -6.66%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 36.18%EV -18.70%E -8.13%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.84%EV -16.71%E -5.39%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 20.2% | 2026-04-24 02:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 36.78%EV -14.99%E -6.66%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 34.48%EV -15.16%E -6.32%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.74%EV -22.62%E -7.85%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 20.8% | 2026-04-19 18:08 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81% | 10.2% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 36.67% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64% | 10.9% | 2026-04-24 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 36.67% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64% | 10.9% | 2026-04-24 03:20 |