L’École des cotes

Erzgebirge Aue v TSG Hoffenheim II

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 12:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

37 opérateurs (10 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Erzgebirge Aue (Local)

Prévision 39.92%2.51cote équitable
EV -3.00%
Avantage -1.24%
Kelly -2.10%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.43

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.53%40.04%39.96%41.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.312.302.4347.62%43.24%43.48%41.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

TSG Hoffenheim II (Visiteur)

Prévision 34.99%2.86cote équitable
EV -2.03%
Avantage -0.723%
Kelly -1.13%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.95%34.94%34.96%36.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.382.562.602.8042.02%39.01%38.46%35.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.09%3.99cote équitable
EV +0.367%
Avantage +0.092%
Kelly +0.122%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.17%25.02%25.08%27.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.563.554.0033.33%28.10%28.17%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV +0.367%E +0.092%K +0.122%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 11:30
Pinnacle2.37I 42.19%NM 40.26%EV -5.40%E -2.28%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.70%EV -3.77%E -1.37%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.04%EV -4.40%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 11:55
LowVig.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%EV -4.20%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44%EV -2.03%E -0.723%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -4.65%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 11:45
BetOnline.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%EV -4.20%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44%EV -2.03%E -0.723%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -4.65%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 11:44
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -3.77%E -1.37%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -4.65%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 11:44
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -6.19%E -2.64%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.65%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 11:30
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -8.19%E -3.56%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.98%EV -7.27%E -2.74%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -5.91%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 02:49
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -10.77%E -4.22%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.42%EV -7.16%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-01 15:39
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -12.18%E -5.54%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -7.16%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 09:15
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -5.00%E -2.10%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 11:29
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -6.19%E -2.64%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 11:30
Codere (IT)2.34I 42.74%NM 39.22%EV -6.59%E -2.82%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 11:29
LeoVegas2.43I 41.15%NM 37.67%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.91%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 11:30
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.70%EV -14.18%E -6.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -12.52%E -5.01%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-04 09:15
Suprabets2.26I 44.25%NM 40.20%EV -9.79%E -4.33%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.42%EV -7.62%E -2.89%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.38%EV -10.17%E -2.84%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 11:43
TABtouch2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:30
Virgin Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:30
Casumo2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:30
Grosvenor2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
Unibet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
ATG (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
PlayUp2.28I 43.86%NM 39.70%EV -8.99%E -3.94%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.81%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-04 11:44
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -14.18%E -6.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -12.52%E -5.01%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -12.18%E -3.48%K -4.87%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-03 04:15
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -8.32%E -3.18%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 11:45
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -8.32%E -3.18%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 11:44
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -8.32%E -3.18%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 11:44
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-04 04:08
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-04 04:09
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-04 04:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-04 04:09
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 39.44%EV -14.18%E -6.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.63%EV -16.72%E -7.03%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.94%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-04 11:29
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 38.83%EV -14.18%E -6.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.08%EV -16.72%E -7.03%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.09%EV -19.71%E -6.16%K -8.96%G +0.000%19.8%2026-04-04 11:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 38.83%EV -16.17%E -7.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 33.98%EV -16.02%E -6.68%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.18%EV -24.72%E -8.24%K -12.36%G +0.000%22.6%2026-04-03 04:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.11%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%2.2%2026-04-04 11:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.11%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%2.2%2026-04-04 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.11%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%2.2%2026-04-04 11:55