La escuela de los momios

Erzgebirge Aue v TSG Hoffenheim II

Inicio: 2026-04-04 12:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Erzgebirge Aue (Local)

Predicción 39.92%2.51momio equitativo
EV -3.00%
Ventaja -1.24%
Kelly -2.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.53%40.04%39.96%41.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.312.302.4347.62%43.24%43.48%41.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

TSG Hoffenheim II (Visitante)

Predicción 34.99%2.86momio equitativo
EV -2.03%
Ventaja -0.723%
Kelly -1.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.95%34.94%34.96%36.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.382.562.602.8042.02%39.01%38.46%35.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.09%3.99momio equitativo
EV +0.367%
Ventaja +0.092%
Kelly +0.122%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.17%25.02%25.08%27.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.563.554.0033.33%28.10%28.17%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV +0.367%E +0.092%K +0.122%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 11:30
Pinnacle2.37I 42.19%NM 40.26%EV -5.40%E -2.28%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.70%EV -3.77%E -1.37%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.04%EV -4.40%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 11:55
LowVig.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%EV -4.20%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44%EV -2.03%E -0.723%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -4.65%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 11:45
BetOnline.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%EV -4.20%E -1.75%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44%EV -2.03%E -0.723%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -4.65%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 11:44
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -3.77%E -1.37%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -4.65%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 11:44
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -6.19%E -2.64%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.65%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 11:30
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -8.19%E -3.56%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.98%EV -7.27%E -2.74%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -5.91%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 02:49
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -10.77%E -4.22%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.42%EV -7.16%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-01 15:39
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -12.18%E -5.54%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -7.16%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 09:15
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -5.00%E -2.10%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 11:29
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -6.19%E -2.64%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 11:30
Codere (IT)2.34I 42.74%NM 39.22%EV -6.59%E -2.82%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 11:29
LeoVegas2.43I 41.15%NM 37.67%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.91%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 11:30
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.70%EV -14.18%E -6.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -12.52%E -5.01%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -9.67%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-04 09:15
Suprabets2.26I 44.25%NM 40.20%EV -9.79%E -4.33%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.42%EV -7.62%E -2.89%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.38%EV -10.17%E -2.84%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 11:43
TABtouch2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:30
Virgin Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:30
Casumo2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:30
Grosvenor2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
Unibet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
ATG (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -3.00%E -1.24%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -13.22%E -5.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 11:29
PlayUp2.28I 43.86%NM 39.70%EV -8.99%E -3.94%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.81%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-04 11:44
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -14.18%E -6.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -12.52%E -5.01%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -12.18%E -3.48%K -4.87%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-03 04:15
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -8.32%E -3.18%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 11:45
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -8.32%E -3.18%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 11:44
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -8.32%E -3.18%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 11:44
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-04 04:08
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-04 04:09
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-04 04:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.19%E -4.53%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -9.02%E -3.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-04 04:09
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 39.44%EV -14.18%E -6.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.63%EV -16.72%E -7.03%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.94%EV -14.69%E -4.32%K -6.12%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-04 11:29
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 38.83%EV -14.18%E -6.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.08%EV -16.72%E -7.03%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.09%EV -19.71%E -6.16%K -8.96%G +0.000%19.8%2026-04-04 11:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 38.83%EV -16.17%E -7.70%K -14.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 33.98%EV -16.02%E -6.68%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.18%EV -24.72%E -8.24%K -12.36%G +0.000%22.6%2026-04-03 04:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.11%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%2.2%2026-04-04 11:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.11%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%2.2%2026-04-04 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.11%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%2.2%2026-04-04 11:55