Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alemannia Aachen v Fortuna Düsseldorf

2026-09-19 12:00 UTC — 3. Liga - Germany

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

44%

30%

26%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alemannia Aachen (Local)

Prediction 43.91%2.28fair odd

EV -7.79%

Edge -3.71%

Kelly -7.08%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.91%43.91%43.91%43.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.102.102.1047.62%47.62%47.62%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit)

Prediction 29.75%3.36fair odd

EV -7.79%

Edge -2.51%

Kelly -3.71%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.75%29.75%29.75%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.103.103.1032.26%32.26%32.26%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.35%3.80fair odd

EV -7.79%

Edge -2.23%

Kelly -3.12%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.35%26.35%26.35%26.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.503.503.5028.57%28.57%28.57%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alemannia Aachen (Local): 43.91%; Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit): 29.75%; Draw: 26.35%. For Fortuna Düsseldorf (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.10, with an expected value of -7.79%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.79%E -3.71%K -7.08%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.79%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.79%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-09-13 21:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.