Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waldhof Mannheim v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

2026-08-21 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waldhof Mannheim (Local)

Prediction 28.75%3.48fair odd
EV +9.26%
Edge +2.44%
Kelly +3.31%
Growth +0.306%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.32%28.75%30.56%31.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.002.903.8036.36%33.31%34.48%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit)

Prediction 44.84%2.23fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +2.41%
Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.43%44.84%42.24%51.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.102.132.3055.56%47.51%47.06%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.40%3.79fair odd
EV +0.338%
Edge +0.089%
Kelly +0.121%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.32%26.40%27.20%27.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.313.8032.26%29.83%30.21%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Waldhof Mannheim (Local): 28.75%; 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit): 44.84%; Draw: 26.40%. For Waldhof Mannheim (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.80, producing a positive expected value of +9.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV +9.26%E +2.44%K +3.31%G +0.306%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -19.28%E -10.71%K -24.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV +0.338%E +0.089%K +0.121%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 20:39
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -10.86%E -3.50%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -3.59%E -1.67%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 17:35
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -13.74%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV +3.14%E +1.36%K +2.41%G +0.076%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-11 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -13.74%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.24%EV -2.69%E -1.24%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.20%EV -11.02%E -3.27%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-13 16:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -19.49%E -6.96%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -1.35%E -0.613%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -15.51%E -4.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-06 16:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.30%EV -19.49%E -6.96%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.73%EV -5.83%E -2.78%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -14.18%E -4.36%K -6.30%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-27 16:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 30.63%EV -20.35%E -7.35%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.00%EV -9.42%E -4.66%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.37%EV -18.15%E -5.85%K -8.64%G +0.000%17.9%2026-08-13 16:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.56%EV -20.93%E -7.61%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.32%EV -5.83%E -2.78%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.12%EV -15.51%E -4.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-27 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (7 combinations) +4.05%Tipico (DE) 3.80 (27.4%) / BetMGM 2.30 (45.2%) / Tipico (DE) 3.80 (27.4%)Show all 7 combinations
Waldhof Mannheim (Local)1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit)DrawMargin
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (27.4%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (45.2%)Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (27.4%)+4.05%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.8%)Unibet (FR)🎯 2.20 (46.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.8%)+1.95%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.8%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (44.2%)LeoVegas🎯 3.50 (29.0%)+1.66%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)Betclic (FR)🎯 2.17 (46.7%)Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.7%)+1.30%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.5%)LeoVegas🎯 2.15 (46.9%)Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.5%)+0.864%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.5%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (43.8%)BetMGM🎯 3.40 (29.6%)+0.801%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.80 (26.5%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (43.7%)Betclic (FR)🎯 3.37 (29.8%)+0.535%

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