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TSV 1860 München v Holstein Kiel
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
TSV 1860 München (Local)
Prediction 16.23%6.16fair odd
EV +5.49%
Edge +0.845%
Kelly +0.999%
Growth +0.055%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.13%16.18%16.35%16.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.986.006.5018.18%16.72%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Holstein Kiel (Visit)
Prediction 64.93%1.54fair odd
EV -5.85%
Edge -4.03%
Kelly -13.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.37%65.04%64.84%67.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.411.411.4574.07%71.11%70.92%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.84%5.31fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.393%
Kelly -0.486%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.18%18.78%18.80%19.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.895.005.2021.74%20.45%20.00%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSV 1860 München (Local): 16.23%; Holstein Kiel (Visit): 64.93%; Draw: 18.84%. For TSV 1860 München (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.16. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +5.49%E +0.845%K +0.999%G +0.055% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.71%EV -8.45%E -5.99%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +5.49%E +0.845%K +0.999%G +0.055% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.71%EV -8.45%E -5.99%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +5.49%E +0.845%K +0.999%G +0.055% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.71%EV -8.45%E -5.99%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +5.49%E +0.845%K +0.999%G +0.055% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.71%EV -8.45%E -5.99%K -20.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV +5.49%E +0.845%K +0.999%G +0.055% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -11.69%E -8.60%K -32.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-22 09:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV +3.87%E +0.605%K +0.717%G +0.028% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.41%EV -7.80%E -5.49%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.25%EV +0.625%E +0.101%K +0.120%G +0.001% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.57%EV -7.80%E -5.49%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.18%EV -2.04%E -0.393%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -0.998%E -0.164%K -0.196%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.93%EV -10.39%E -7.53%K -27.35%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -10.52%E -2.21%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -2.62%E -0.437%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.19%EV -6.50%E -4.51%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -7.69%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -2.62%E -0.437%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.86%EV -12.34%E -9.14%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -13.35%E -2.90%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -2.62%E -0.437%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.86%EV -12.34%E -9.14%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -13.35%E -2.90%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -2.62%E -0.437%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.86%EV -12.34%E -9.14%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -13.35%E -2.90%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.67%EV -5.87%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 65.39%EV -9.74%E -7.01%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -9.58%E -2.00%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-22 15:18 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -6.68%E -1.16%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.84%EV -5.85%E -4.03%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -6.68%E -1.16%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.84%EV -5.85%E -4.03%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 15:18 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV -9.11%E -1.63%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -7.15%E -5.00%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -10.74%E -1.95%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -5.85%E -4.03%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -10.74%E -1.95%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -5.85%E -4.03%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -5.81%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -10.74%E -1.95%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -10.52%E -2.21%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -10.74%E -1.95%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -10.52%E -2.21%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -10.74%E -1.95%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -10.52%E -2.21%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.