The School of Odds
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TSV 1860 München v Holstein Kiel

2026-08-22 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSV 1860 München (Local)

Prediction 17.43%5.74fair odd
EV -7.63%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.43%17.43%17.43%17.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.305.305.3018.87%18.87%18.87%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Holstein Kiel (Visit)

Prediction 61.58%1.62fair odd
EV -7.63%
Edge -5.09%
Kelly -15.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.58%61.58%61.58%61.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.501.501.5066.67%66.67%66.67%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.99%4.76fair odd
EV -7.63%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.99%20.99%20.99%20.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.404.404.4022.73%22.73%22.73%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: TSV 1860 München (Local): 17.43%; Holstein Kiel (Visit): 61.58%; Draw: 20.99%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.76. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.40, with an expected value of -7.63%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.43%EV -7.63%E -1.44%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.58%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -7.63%E -1.73%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-01 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.