Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart

2026-10-28 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Paderborn (Local)

Prediction 17.26%5.79fair odd
EV -0.727%
Edge -0.126%
Kelly -0.153%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.57%17.29%17.49%18.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.135.055.7521.74%19.48%19.80%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 61.36%1.63fair odd
EV -6.12%
Edge -4.00%
Kelly -11.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%61.34%61.21%62.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.471.491.5372.46%67.95%67.11%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.37%4.68fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -0.849%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.96%21.37%21.30%21.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.054.234.204.5024.69%23.66%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SC Paderborn (Local): 17.26%; VfB Stuttgart (Visit): 61.36%; Draw: 21.37%. For SC Paderborn (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.79. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.75, with an expected value of -0.727%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -0.727%E -0.126%K -0.153%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.26%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -3.82%E -0.849%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 13:33
picklebet_au🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -5.04%E -0.917%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -7.96%E -5.30%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -7.45%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-14 07:35
LeoVegas🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.96%EV -6.77%E -1.25%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.89%EV -9.18%E -6.21%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -7.45%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 15:09
Tipico (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -8.50%E -1.60%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.97%EV -6.73%E -4.43%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -8.10%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 13:59
NetBet (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 16.79%EV -10.22%E -1.97%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 61.92%EV -13.48%E -9.56%K -32.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.29%EV -12.37%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-15 20:20
Betclic (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.52%EV -11.95%E -2.34%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.20%EV -10.41%E -7.13%K -22.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -10.23%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-13 17:04
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.68%E -2.74%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.96%E -5.30%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.23%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-10 17:05
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.68%E -2.74%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.96%E -5.30%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.23%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-10 17:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.68%E -2.74%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.96%E -5.30%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.23%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-10 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 17.21%EV -14.54%E -2.94%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 61.75%EV -15.32%E -11.10%K -40.32%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.04%EV -13.44%E -3.32%K -4.41%G +0.000%17.4%2026-10-13 17:04
Winamax (DE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.34%EV -17.13%E -3.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 60.70%EV -11.03%E -7.60%K -24.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -10.23%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-10 17:19
Winamax (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 18.73%EV -20.58%E -4.47%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 60.25%EV -12.25%E -8.57%K -28.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.02%EV -12.37%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-10 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.