The School of Odds
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SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 17:00 UTC

Final: SC Paderborn 0–1 VfB Stuttgart

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Paderborn (Local)

Prediction 14.51%6.89fair odd
EV +4.78%
Edge +0.663%
Kelly +0.769%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 7.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.25%14.54%14.47%15.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.276.407.2218.18%15.95%15.63%13.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 66.98%1.49fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -9.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.08%66.91%66.93%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.381.381.4375.76%72.30%72.46%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.50%5.40fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.258%
Kelly -0.317%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.78%18.55%18.60%19.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.894.955.3322.73%20.43%20.20%18.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Paderborn (Local): 14.51%; VfB Stuttgart (Visit): 66.98%; Draw: 18.50%. For SC Paderborn (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.89. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯7.22I 13.85%NM 13.25%EV +4.78%E +0.663%K +0.769%G +0.037%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.81%EV -6.89%E -4.96%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.94%EV -1.37%E -0.258%K -0.317%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-28 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV +1.59%E +0.227%K +0.265%G +0.004%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.77%EV -8.23%E -6.01%K -22.25%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.78%EV -1.93%E -0.364%K -0.449%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:50
picklebet_au🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -5.67%E -0.872%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.22%E -4.45%K -15.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -5.67%E -0.872%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.22%E -4.45%K -15.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 16:15
Betway🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -5.67%E -0.872%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.79%EV -7.56%E -5.48%K -19.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -2.86%E -0.544%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 16:40
1xBet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.38%EV -5.67%E -0.872%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.75%EV -6.22%E -4.45%K -15.56%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.88%EV -8.41%E -1.70%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 16:15
LeoVegas🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.67%E -0.872%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.67%EV -7.56%E -5.48%K -19.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -3.78%E -0.727%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 16:50
888sport🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -5.67%E -0.872%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.90%E -6.55%K -24.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.18%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -5.67%E -0.872%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.90%E -6.55%K -24.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.18%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -5.67%E -0.872%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.90%E -6.55%K -24.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.18%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 16:50
betfred_uk🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -5.67%E -0.872%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -8.90%E -6.55%K -24.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -14.88%E -3.24%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.80%EV -7.12%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.25%EV -4.21%E -2.95%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.80%EV -7.12%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.25%EV -4.21%E -2.95%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 16:40
Unibet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.80%EV -7.12%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.25%EV -4.21%E -2.95%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.80%EV -7.12%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.25%EV -4.21%E -2.95%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.80%EV -7.12%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.25%EV -4.21%E -2.95%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 16:40
Codere (IT)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.53%EV -7.12%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.88%EV -6.89%E -4.96%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -7.48%E -1.50%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-28 16:15
Winamax (DE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -9.29%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.29%EV -7.56%E -5.48%K -19.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.86%EV -3.78%E -0.727%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-28 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.74%EV -11.47%E -1.88%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.12%EV -8.90%E -6.55%K -24.73%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -13.03%E -2.77%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-28 16:50
BetMGM🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -12.92%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.21%E -2.95%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -2.86%E -0.544%K -0.672%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 16:29
Winamax (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -12.92%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.56%EV -10.24%E -7.64%K -30.12%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.58%EV -11.18%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-28 16:30
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -12.92%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -10.91%E -8.20%K -33.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -12.11%E -2.55%K -3.23%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-28 16:15
Unibet (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.66%EV -12.92%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 66.63%EV -11.58%E -8.77%K -36.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -13.03%E -2.77%K -3.52%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-28 16:15
Grosvenor🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV -15.82%E -2.73%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.97%EV -6.22%E -4.45%K -15.56%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -13.03%E -2.77%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-28 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.47%EV -15.82%E -2.73%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -7.56%E -5.48%K -19.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.51%EV -14.88%E -3.24%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-28 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.47%EV -15.82%E -2.73%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -7.56%E -5.48%K -19.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.51%EV -14.88%E -3.24%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-28 16:15
PMU (FR)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -16.55%E -2.88%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.27%EV -8.90%E -6.55%K -24.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -14.88%E -3.24%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -16.55%E -2.88%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.27%EV -8.90%E -6.55%K -24.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -14.88%E -3.24%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -20.18%E -3.67%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.08%EV -8.23%E -6.01%K -22.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -18.58%E -4.22%K -5.47%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-28 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.26%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.00%1.0%2026-10-28 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.26%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.00%1.0%2026-10-28 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.26%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.00%1.0%2026-10-28 16:50