Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart

2026-10-28 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

19%

60%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Paderborn (Local)

Prediction 19.06%5.25fair odd

EV +6.72%

Edge +1.20%

Kelly +1.46%

Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.40%19.06%19.06%19.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.805.105.105.6020.83%19.61%19.61%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 59.90%1.67fair odd

EV -2.97%

Edge -1.83%

Kelly -4.79%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.03%59.90%59.90%61.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.481.451.6270.92%67.76%68.97%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.05%4.75fair odd

EV -1.08%

Edge -0.229%

Kelly -0.291%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.71%21.05%21.05%23.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.654.013.954.7027.40%24.91%25.32%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SC Paderborn (Local): 19.06%; VfB Stuttgart (Visit): 59.90%; Draw: 21.05%. For SC Paderborn (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.25. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.60, producing a positive expected value of +6.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV +6.72%E +1.20%K +1.46%G +0.098%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -10.16%E -6.77%K -20.31%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -13.71%E -3.34%K -4.42%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-09-21 08:04
Winamax (DE)🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 17.22%EV -2.81%E -0.551%K -0.685%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 60.55%EV -13.15%E -9.07%K -29.22%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 22.23%EV -16.86%E -4.27%K -5.72%G +0.000%	13.9%	2026-09-21 08:04
Unibet (FR)🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 16.63%EV -2.81%E -0.551%K -0.685%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 60.14%EV -15.55%E -11.03%K -37.92%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 23.23%EV -23.18%E -6.35%K -8.75%G +0.000%	17.9%	2026-09-21 08:04
Betclic (FR)🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 16.63%EV -2.81%E -0.551%K -0.685%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 60.14%EV -15.55%E -11.03%K -37.92%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 23.23%EV -23.18%E -6.35%K -8.75%G +0.000%	17.9%	2026-09-21 08:04
Tipico (DE)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -4.72%E -0.943%K -1.18%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -10.16%E -6.77%K -20.31%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -1.08%E -0.229%K -0.291%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-09-20 19:38
Winamax (FR)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 17.33%EV -4.72%E -0.943%K -1.18%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 60.17%EV -13.75%E -9.55%K -31.25%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 22.50%EV -18.97%E -4.93%K -6.66%G +0.000%	15.4%	2026-09-21 08:04
BetMGM🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -8.53%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -2.97%E -1.83%K -4.79%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -11.60%E -2.76%K -3.63%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-21 08:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.