The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rot-Weiss Essen v RB Leipzig

2026-10-27 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 7.73%12.94fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -0.273%
Kelly -0.297%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.63%8.09%7.73%9.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.2211.6312.5010.53%8.91%8.60%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 77.52%1.29fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -4.45%
Kelly -24.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.18%77.40%77.52%78.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.181.191.2289.29%84.96%84.39%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.75%6.78fair odd
EV +10.64%
Edge +1.42%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.174%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.34%14.51%14.75%16.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.996.007.5019.61%16.68%16.67%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 7.73%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 77.52%; Draw: 14.75%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.78. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.50, producing a positive expected value of +10.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -22.73%E -2.27%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -8.52%E -7.22%K -47.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV +10.64%E +1.42%K +1.64%G +0.174%8.1%2026-09-19 15:11
BetMGM🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.63%EV -3.41%E -0.273%K -0.297%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.23%EV -5.42%E -4.45%K -24.65%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.14%EV -0.427%E -0.063%K -0.074%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-02 08:05
888sport🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.28%E -0.606%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.97%E -5.81%K -34.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.49%E -1.92%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 10:30
888sport (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.28%E -0.606%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.97%E -5.81%K -34.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.49%E -1.92%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 10:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.28%E -0.606%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.97%E -5.81%K -34.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.49%E -1.92%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 10:35
LeoVegas🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.64%EV -7.28%E -0.606%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -7.75%E -6.51%K -40.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -11.49%E -1.92%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-02 08:09
Winamax (DE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.79%EV -22.73%E -2.27%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 75.79%EV -10.08%E -8.69%K -62.97%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.42%EV -15.92%E -2.79%K -3.39%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-02 08:10
Winamax (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.10%EV -26.59%E -2.80%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 75.18%EV -10.85%E -9.44%K -72.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.72%EV -18.87%E -3.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-02 08:10
Betclic (FR)🎯11.25I 8.89%NM 7.77%EV -13.07%E -1.16%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.03%EV -10.85%E -9.44%K -72.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.19%EV -20.34%E -3.77%K -4.62%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-02 08:09
Unibet (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 7.71%EV -15.00%E -1.36%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 75.68%EV -13.18%E -11.76%K -109.80%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.62%EV -24.77%E -4.86%K -6.04%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-02 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.