Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen v RB Leipzig

2026-10-27 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 8.74%11.44fair odd
EV +4.93%
Edge +0.411%
Kelly +0.448%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.81%9.00%8.70%10.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.7511.0012.0011.76%9.30%9.09%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 77.65%1.29fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -4.32%
Kelly -23.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.05%77.39%77.69%78.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.181.191.2289.29%85.01%84.03%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.60%7.35fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.189%
Kelly -0.219%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.06%13.61%13.61%14.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.206.736.757.2516.13%14.87%14.81%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 8.74%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 77.65%; Draw: 13.60%. For Rot-Weiss Essen (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.44. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 12.00, producing a positive expected value of +4.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV +4.93%E +0.411%K +0.448%G +0.022%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -7.59%E -6.38%K -39.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -4.77%E -0.682%K -0.795%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 11:09
Unibet (NL)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV +4.93%E +0.411%K +0.448%G +0.022%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -7.59%E -6.38%K -39.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -4.77%E -0.682%K -0.795%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 11:21
ATG (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV +4.93%E +0.411%K +0.448%G +0.022%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -7.59%E -6.38%K -39.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -4.77%E -0.682%K -0.795%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 11:20
Unibet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV +4.93%E +0.411%K +0.448%G +0.022%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -7.59%E -6.38%K -39.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -4.77%E -0.682%K -0.795%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV +4.93%E +0.411%K +0.448%G +0.022%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -7.59%E -6.38%K -39.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -4.77%E -0.682%K -0.795%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -6.82%E -5.68%K -34.09%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.06%EV -2.05%E -0.285%K -0.331%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 06:35
888sport🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.82%E -5.68%K -34.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.57%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 20:10
888sport (SE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.82%E -5.68%K -34.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.57%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 20:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.82%E -5.68%K -34.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.57%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 20:10
Codere (IT)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.93%EV -7.59%E -6.38%K -39.97%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.64%EV -7.49%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.44%EV -7.59%E -6.38%K -39.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -11.57%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-20 20:20
betfred_uk🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.74%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -11.57%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 20:20
PMU (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.29%EV -9.92%E -8.55%K -62.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -8.17%E -1.21%K -1.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-19 11:09
Grosvenor🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.29%EV -9.92%E -8.55%K -62.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -8.17%E -1.21%K -1.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-19 11:15
LiveScore Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.10%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 78.18%EV -11.48%E -10.07%K -81.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -11.57%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-19 10:45
Virgin Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.10%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 78.18%EV -11.48%E -10.07%K -81.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -11.57%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-19 10:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.10%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 78.18%EV -11.48%E -10.07%K -81.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -11.57%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-19 11:15
BetMGM🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -8.19%E -0.780%K -0.862%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.85%EV -5.26%E -4.32%K -23.93%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.10%EV -1.37%E -0.189%K -0.219%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 20:15
Betclic (FR)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.67%EV -8.19%E -0.780%K -0.862%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.81%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.49%EV -8.17%E -1.21%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 17:13
LeoVegas🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -6.82%E -5.68%K -34.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -4.77%E -0.682%K -0.795%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 14:41
NetBet (FR)🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 8.93%EV -14.75%E -1.51%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 77.03%EV -12.25%E -10.84%K -94.26%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.04%EV -15.66%E -2.53%K -3.01%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-21 18:49
Unibet (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.08%EV -16.93%E -1.78%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 77.01%EV -13.03%E -11.63%K -108.58%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 13.91%EV -15.66%E -2.53%K -3.01%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-21 17:04
Betway🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -21.30%E -2.37%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.64%EV -6.82%E -5.68%K -34.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -4.77%E -0.682%K -0.795%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 12:35
Winamax (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.97%EV -21.30%E -2.37%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.73%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.81%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -8.17%E -1.21%K -1.42%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-21 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.38%EV -25.68%E -3.02%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 76.05%EV -9.92%E -8.55%K -62.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -11.57%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-21 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.