The School of Odds
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Rot-Weiss Essen v RB Leipzig

2026-10-27 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 7.69%13.00fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -0.308%
Kelly -0.335%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.65%7.69%7.69%9.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.619.7512.5011.11%9.43%10.26%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 80.53%1.24fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -3.50%
Kelly -21.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.07%80.53%80.53%80.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.151.151.1989.29%86.85%86.96%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.78%8.49fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -0.826%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.60%11.78%11.78%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.306.486.258.0018.87%15.44%16.00%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 7.69%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 80.53%; Draw: 11.78%. For Rot-Weiss Essen (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.00. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 12.50, with an expected value of -3.85%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.65%EV -3.85%E -0.308%K -0.335%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.39%EV -4.17%E -3.50%K -21.94%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.96%EV -5.78%E -0.723%K -0.826%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -7.70%E -0.641%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -7.39%E -6.43%K -49.26%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.78%E -0.723%K -0.826%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -7.70%E -0.641%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.13%EV -4.97%E -4.22%K -27.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -23.45%E -3.61%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 8.69%EV -25.00%E -2.56%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 75.63%EV -9.81%E -8.76%K -81.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.69%EV -36.40%E -6.74%K -8.27%G +0.000%18.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.28%EV -26.93%E -2.83%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.63%EV -7.39%E -6.43%K -49.26%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.10%EV -26.39%E -4.22%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 8.93%EV -26.93%E -2.83%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 75.07%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.00%EV -37.58%E -7.09%K -8.74%G +0.000%17.9%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.60%EV -30.77%E -3.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 75.76%EV -8.20%E -7.19%K -58.54%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.64%EV -30.51%E -5.17%K -6.23%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-12 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.