The School of Odds
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Rot-Weiss Essen v RB Leipzig

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 17:00 UTC

Final: Rot-Weiss Essen 1–2 RB Leipzig

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 7.85%12.73fair odd
EV +10.59%
Edge +0.752%
Kelly +0.810%
Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 14.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.75%7.88%7.80%9.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.7512.4812.5014.0810.26%8.02%8.00%7.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RB Leipzig (Visit)

Prediction 79.76%1.25fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -4.28%
Kelly -26.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.22%79.68%79.71%81.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.151.161.1990.91%86.79%86.21%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.39%8.07fair odd
EV +11.51%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.44%
Growth +0.166%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.44%12.44%12.49%13.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.407.607.509.0015.63%13.15%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 7.85%; RB Leipzig (Visit): 79.76%; Draw: 12.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.07. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -5.74%E -0.479%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.73%EV -8.28%E -7.20%K -55.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +11.51%E +1.28%K +1.44%G +0.166%6.4%2026-10-27 15:45
BetMGM🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -13.60%E -1.24%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.85%EV -5.09%E -4.28%K -26.80%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.52%EV +2.22%E +0.269%K +0.306%G +0.007%5.2%2026-10-27 16:42
Unibet (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +9.97%E +0.712%K +0.767%G +0.076%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.44%EV -7.48%E -6.45%K -46.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.879%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +9.97%E +0.712%K +0.767%G +0.076%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.44%EV -7.48%E -6.45%K -46.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.879%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +9.97%E +0.712%K +0.767%G +0.076%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.44%EV -7.48%E -6.45%K -46.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.879%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 16:55
Unibet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +9.97%E +0.712%K +0.767%G +0.076%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.44%EV -7.48%E -6.45%K -46.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.879%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +9.97%E +0.712%K +0.767%G +0.076%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.44%EV -7.48%E -6.45%K -46.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -0.879%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 16:55
picklebet_au🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.55%EV -1.82%E -0.145%K -0.158%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.65%EV -6.69%E -5.71%K -39.33%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -0.879%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 15:44
LeoVegas🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -5.74%E -0.479%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.69%E -5.71%K -39.33%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -0.879%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-27 16:45
Winamax (FR)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.62%EV -17.53%E -1.67%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.07%EV -9.88%E -8.74%K -75.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -0.879%E -0.110%K -0.126%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-27 15:44
Tipico (DE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +2.11%E +0.162%K +0.176%G +0.004%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.65%EV -6.69%E -5.71%K -39.33%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.10%EV -3.36%E -0.430%K -0.494%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 16:40
Codere (IT)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV -5.74%E -0.479%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.16%EV -6.69%E -5.71%K -39.33%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.02%EV -3.36%E -0.430%K -0.494%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 15:45
Pinnacle🎯14.08I 7.10%NM 6.76%EV +10.59%E +0.752%K +0.810%G +0.086%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.64%EV -5.89%E -4.99%K -32.72%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.60%EV -6.45%E -0.855%K -0.985%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 16:55
Betway🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -5.74%E -0.479%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -5.89%E -4.99%K -32.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -7.07%E -0.943%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-27 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV +2.11%E +0.162%K +0.176%G +0.004%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -6.69%E -5.71%K -39.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -7.07%E -0.943%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV -1.82%E -0.145%K -0.158%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.58%EV -9.88%E -8.74%K -75.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.07%E -0.943%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-27 16:55
Grosvenor🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV -1.82%E -0.145%K -0.158%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.58%EV -9.88%E -8.74%K -75.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.07%E -0.943%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-27 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -1.82%E -0.145%K -0.158%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 80.71%EV -10.67%E -9.53%K -88.95%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -7.07%E -0.943%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-27 16:55
Virgin Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -1.82%E -0.145%K -0.158%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 80.71%EV -10.67%E -9.53%K -88.95%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -7.07%E -0.943%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-27 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.18%EV -1.82%E -0.145%K -0.158%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.85%EV -11.47%E -10.33%K -104.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -7.07%E -0.943%K -1.09%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-27 16:55
888sport🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +2.11%E +0.162%K +0.176%G +0.004%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.69%E -5.71%K -39.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +2.11%E +0.162%K +0.176%G +0.004%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.69%E -5.71%K -39.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +2.11%E +0.162%K +0.176%G +0.004%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.69%E -5.71%K -39.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 16:55
betfred_uk🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -5.74%E -0.479%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.50%EV -9.08%E -7.96%K -64.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-27 16:50
NetBet (FR)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.48%EV -17.53%E -1.67%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.80%EV -9.88%E -8.74%K -75.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-27 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 7.95%EV -13.60%E -1.24%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 79.55%EV -12.27%E -11.15%K -122.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -13.27%E -1.90%K -2.21%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-27 16:45
Betclic (FR)🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.03%EV -23.42%E -2.40%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 77.22%EV -9.08%E -7.96%K -64.85%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.75%EV -20.70%E -3.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-27 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.