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Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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MSV Duisburg v Elversberg

2026-08-22 13:30 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MSV Duisburg (Local)

Prediction 23.22%4.31fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.489%
Kelly +0.633%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.56%23.22%21.82%26.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.943.854.4028.57%25.41%25.97%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elversberg (Visit)

Prediction 52.14%1.92fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -5.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.91%52.14%52.47%52.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.751.731.8359.52%57.28%57.80%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.64%4.06fair odd
EV +3.51%
Edge +0.835%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.06%24.64%25.70%26.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.593.504.2029.41%27.83%28.57%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: MSV Duisburg (Local): 23.22%; Elversberg (Visit): 52.14%; Draw: 24.64%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.20, producing a positive expected value of +3.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -18.74%E -5.35%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -6.15%E -3.42%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV +3.51%E +0.835%K +1.10%G +0.038%7.9%2026-08-08 17:30
BetMGM🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV +2.15%E +0.489%K +0.633%G +0.014%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.59%E -2.51%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -11.28%E -3.13%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-11 09:59
Betclic (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.56%EV -1.33%E -0.313%K -0.409%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -9.80%E -5.66%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -11.28%E -3.13%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 13:34
LeoVegas🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.13%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -8.76%E -5.00%K -11.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -13.74%E -3.93%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-04 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -10.62%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.70%EV -11.36%E -6.68%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -14.98%E -4.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-29 06:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.18%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.91%EV -9.80%E -5.66%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.91%EV -16.21%E -4.77%K -6.75%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-07 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -12.94%E -3.45%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.49%EV -12.41%E -7.39%K -18.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.44%EV -16.21%E -4.77%K -6.75%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-29 07:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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