Language:English
MSV Duisburg v Elversberg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MSV Duisburg (Local)
Prediction 24.19%4.13fair odd
EV -0.825%
Edge -0.201%
Kelly -0.266%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.03%24.11%24.20%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.723.754.1029.41%26.88%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Elversberg (Visit)
Prediction 52.27%1.91fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.03%52.32%52.25%53.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.791.791.8757.80%55.75%55.87%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.55%4.25fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -0.845%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.03%23.57%23.55%24.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.903.954.1027.03%25.63%25.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MSV Duisburg (Local): 24.19%; Elversberg (Visit): 52.27%; Draw: 23.55%. For MSV Duisburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -0.825%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -0.825%E -0.201%K -0.266%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.54%E -4.88%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -3.46%E -0.845%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 12:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.90%EV -4.35%E -2.38%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 09:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-22 13:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-22 13:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -6.97%E -3.91%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -6.87%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.68%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -9.35%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-22 13:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -8.01%E -4.55%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -8.17%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-22 13:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.52%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -8.17%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-22 13:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.54%E -4.88%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.54%E -4.88%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.54%E -4.88%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.50%EV -9.58%E -5.54%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -8.17%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -10.50%E -2.84%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.53%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -12.88%E -3.48%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-22 13:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -11.71%E -3.21%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -2.26%E -1.21%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -11.71%E -3.21%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -2.26%E -1.21%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -11.71%E -3.21%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -2.26%E -1.21%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -11.71%E -3.21%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -2.26%E -1.21%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -11.71%E -3.21%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -2.26%E -1.21%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -12.92%E -3.59%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.82%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-22 06:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -15.34%E -4.38%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.16%EV -5.40%E -2.98%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.53%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -17.76%E -5.22%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.03%EV -7.49%E -4.23%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -12.88%E -3.48%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-22 13:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -17.76%E -5.22%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.03%EV -7.49%E -4.23%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -12.88%E -3.48%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -17.76%E -5.22%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.03%EV -7.49%E -4.23%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -12.88%E -3.48%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-22 13:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.