The School of Odds

MSV Duisburg v Elversberg

2026-08-22 13:30 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

MSV Duisburg (Local)

Prediction 22.08%4.53fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -0.842%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.61%22.21%22.08%23.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.653.973.984.4027%25%25%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Elversberg (Visit)

Prediction 52.05%1.92fair odd
EV -4.75%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -5.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.74%53.00%52.05%55.94%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.631.711.691.8361%59%59%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.88%3.86fair odd
EV +13.85%
Edge +3.15%
Kelly +4.07%
Growth +0.565%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.98%24.79%25.88%26.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.553.454.4031%28%29%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.69%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.94%EV -14.12%E -8.56%K -21.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV +13.85%E +3.15%K +4.07%G +0.565%8.3%2026-06-15 12:30
BetMGM4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -2.86%E -0.650%K -0.842%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -6.85%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-11 09:59
Codere (IT)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.13%EV -7.36%E -4.13%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -6.85%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-25 05:05
LeoVegas4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.28%EV -8.92%E -5.10%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.85%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-25 05:00
Winamax (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 22.92%EV -16.11%E -4.24%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.84%EV -12.56%E -7.48%K -18.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.24%EV -10.73%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-25 05:00
Unibet (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 23.59%EV -18.32%E -4.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 50.74%EV -10.48%E -6.09%K -14.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-25 05:00
Betclic (FR)3.98I 25.13%NM 22.06%EV -12.13%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 51.96%EV -12.04%E -7.12%K -17.45%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.98%EV -12.54%E -3.71%K -5.27%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-25 04:59
Winamax (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 23.09%EV -19.42%E -5.32%K -7.33%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 51.38%EV -14.64%E -8.93%K -22.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.53%EV -14.61%E -4.43%K -6.35%G +0.000%18.7%2026-07-25 05:00
NetBet (FR)3.90I 25.64%NM 21.77%EV -13.90%E -3.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 52.10%EV -15.16%E -9.30%K -24.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.13%EV -15.90%E -4.89%K -7.07%G +0.000%17.8%2026-07-25 05:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.