The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Holstein Kiel v TSG Hoffenheim

2026-10-28 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 15.64%6.39fair odd
EV -6.16%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.42%15.64%15.64%17.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.345.006.0020.41%18.72%20.00%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 64.76%1.54fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -5.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.29%64.76%64.76%66.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.421.411.5072.46%70.28%70.92%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.60%5.10fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.404%
Kelly -0.505%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.50%19.60%19.60%21.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.304.205.0025.64%23.23%23.81%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Holstein Kiel (Local): 15.64%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 64.76%; Draw: 19.60%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.10. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.00, with an expected value of -2.02%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.16%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.45%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.86%E -2.14%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 08:04
Tipico (DE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -6.16%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -9.33%E -6.66%K -23.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -2.02%E -0.404%K -0.505%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 21:30
LeoVegas🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -13.98%E -2.54%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.51%EV -21.80%E -4.36%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.65%EV -8.04%E -5.66%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.84%EV -17.70%E -4.21%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 16.96%EV -21.80%E -4.36%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 61.46%EV -10.63%E -7.70%K -27.96%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 21.58%EV -22.99%E -5.85%K -7.85%G +0.000%17.9%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 16.93%EV -21.80%E -4.36%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 61.36%EV -10.63%E -7.70%K -27.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.71%EV -23.58%E -6.05%K -8.13%G +0.000%18.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 17.64%EV -23.36%E -4.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 61.29%EV -8.68%E -6.16%K -21.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.08%EV -19.66%E -4.79%K -6.34%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-12 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.