Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel v TSG Hoffenheim

2026-10-28 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

21%

58%

22%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 20.58%4.86fair odd

EV -7.39%

Edge -1.64%

Kelly -2.11%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.58%20.58%20.58%20.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.504.504.504.5022.22%22.22%22.22%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 57.88%1.73fair odd

EV -7.39%

Edge -4.62%

Kelly -12.31%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.88%57.88%57.88%57.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.601.601.6062.50%62.50%62.50%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.54%4.64fair odd

EV -7.39%

Edge -1.72%

Kelly -2.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.54%21.54%21.54%21.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.304.304.304.3023.26%23.26%23.26%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Holstein Kiel (Local): 20.58%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 57.88%; Draw: 21.54%. For TSG Hoffenheim (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.60, with an expected value of -7.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Tipico (DE)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -7.39%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.88%EV -7.39%E -4.62%K -12.31%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.39%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-05 23:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.