Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Wolfsburg v FC Energie Cottbus

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 11:00 UTC

Final: VfL Wolfsburg 4–4 FC Energie Cottbus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Wolfsburg (Local)

Prediction 72.46%1.38fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -2.73%
Kelly -10.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.67%72.40%72.32%74.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.291.291.3382.64%77.63%77.52%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Energie Cottbus (Visit)

Prediction 10.60%9.43fair odd
EV +12.59%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.165%

assuming max odds 10.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.92%10.67%10.65%12.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.428.3210.6214.29%11.88%12.01%9.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.94%5.90fair odd
EV +1.63%
Edge +0.271%
Kelly +0.326%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.56%16.94%17.03%18.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.345.406.0020.83%18.73%18.52%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 72.46%; FC Energie Cottbus (Visit): 10.60%; Draw: 16.94%. For FC Energie Cottbus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.43. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.99%EV -7.25%E -5.66%K -25.90%G +0.000%10.62I 9.42%NM 8.92%EV +12.59%E +1.19%K +1.31%G +0.165%5.54I 18.05%NM 17.09%EV -6.16%E -1.11%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 14:25
Suprabets🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.57%EV -8.70%E -6.90%K -33.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV +6.01%E +0.601%K +0.668%G +0.040%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 10:48
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.14%EV -4.35%E -3.30%K -13.60%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.72%EV +3.89%E +0.397%K +0.443%G +0.017%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -11.07%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 13:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.14%EV -4.35%E -3.30%K -13.60%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.72%EV +3.89%E +0.397%K +0.443%G +0.017%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -11.07%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 13:00
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.52%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.98%EV +0.714%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -2.61%E -0.453%K -0.549%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 01:45
DraftKings🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -5.80%E -4.46%K -19.34%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV +0.714%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 11:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.33%EV -7.98%E -6.28%K -29.54%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV +0.714%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +1.63%E +0.271%K +0.326%G +0.005%5.9%2026-09-04 14:20
SportsBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.51%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV +0.714%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -10.23%E -1.93%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV +0.714%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 14:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.82%EV -7.25%E -5.66%K -25.90%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.92%EV -0.346%E -0.037%K -0.041%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 08:30
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.59%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.07%EV -1.41%E -0.151%K -0.169%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 09:35
Coolbet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.12%EV -4.35%E -3.30%K -13.60%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.58%EV -4.59%E -0.510%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 11:55
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -5.80%E -4.46%K -19.34%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -4.59%E -0.510%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 11:05
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -4.59%E -0.510%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 10:05
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -4.59%E -0.510%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 10:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -4.59%E -0.510%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 10:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -4.59%E -0.510%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 10:05
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -9.42%E -7.54%K -37.70%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -4.59%E -0.510%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 07:50
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -9.42%E -7.54%K -37.70%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -4.59%E -0.510%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 07:53
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -9.42%E -7.54%K -37.70%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -4.59%E -0.510%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 14:30
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.86%EV -5.08%E -3.88%K -16.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV -9.89%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.91%EV +1.63%E +0.271%K +0.326%G +0.005%4.8%2026-09-03 15:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -5.80%E -4.46%K -19.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -9.89%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -2.61%E -0.453%K -0.549%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.56%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -9.89%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -11.07%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-02 11:55
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.22%EV -7.98%E -6.28%K -29.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -9.89%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 14:29
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -9.89%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 11:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.87%EV -7.98%E -6.28%K -29.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -9.89%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -11.07%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 14:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.24%EV -12.32%E -10.18%K -58.68%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.28%EV -9.89%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-04 11:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.52%EV -5.80%E -4.46%K -19.34%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.22%EV -10.95%E -1.30%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -1.76%E -0.303%K -0.366%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.16%EV -5.80%E -4.46%K -19.34%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.21%EV -12.54%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.62%EV -11.07%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 11:59
Bovada🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.83%EV -7.25%E -5.66%K -25.90%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.14%EV -12.54%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.03%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 15:32
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 08:04
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 08:05
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 08:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 08:05
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 08:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 08:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 08:04
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -10.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 08:04
theScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.64%EV -8.70%E -6.90%K -33.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -2.61%E -0.453%K -0.549%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 11:45
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.07%EV -7.98%E -6.28%K -29.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.49%EV -5.99%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.07%EV -7.98%E -6.28%K -29.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.49%EV -5.99%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 14:19
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -9.42%E -7.54%K -37.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.03%EV -15.19%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -18.70%E -3.90%K -4.92%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-04 14:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.34%EV -10.15%E -8.18%K -42.29%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.35%EV -16.25%E -2.06%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.31%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 14:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.39%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV -17.84%E -2.30%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +1.63%E +0.271%K +0.326%G +0.005%7.1%2026-09-04 14:20
LeoVegas🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.10%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -20.49%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 14:20
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -5.80%E -4.46%K -19.34%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -20.49%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -13.62%E -2.67%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 08:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.54%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -20.49%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.33%EV -11.07%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 11:45
Neds🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.54%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -20.49%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.33%EV -11.07%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 11:45
BetRivers🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.18%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -20.49%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.75%EV -13.62%E -2.67%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 08:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.18%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -20.49%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.75%EV -13.62%E -2.67%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 08:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.70%EV -7.25%E -5.66%K -25.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -20.49%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.24%EV -11.07%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 11:45
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.70%EV -7.25%E -5.66%K -25.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -20.49%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.24%EV -11.07%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.97%EV -8.70%E -6.90%K -33.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -25.79%E -3.68%K -4.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.67%EV -7.98%E -6.28%K -29.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.64%EV -25.79%E -3.68%K -4.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 08:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.67%EV -7.98%E -6.28%K -29.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.64%EV -25.79%E -3.68%K -4.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 08:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.67%EV -7.98%E -6.28%K -29.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.64%EV -25.79%E -3.68%K -4.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 08:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.34I 74.63%NM 73.16%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.34%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.51%2.0%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 72.44%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.78%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.78%2.3%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 72.44%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.78%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.78%2.3%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 72.44%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.78%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.78%2.3%2026-09-04 14:30
Matchbook1.35I 74.07%NM 72.44%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.78%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.78%2.3%2026-09-04 14:30
Kalshi1.32I 75.76%NM 73.72%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.73%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.55%2.8%2026-09-04 14:30