The School of Odds

VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

2026-08-08 11:30 — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

VfL Wolfsburg (Local)

Prediction 59.29%1.69fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -8.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.28%59.29%59.57%60.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.531.60MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
56.28%1.777Min
60.18%1.662Max
59.29%1.687Mean
59.57%1.679Median
59.29%1.687IQM
59.41%1.683Margin-weighted

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit)

Prediction 18.97%5.27fair odd
EV -0.407%
Edge -0.078%
Kelly -0.096%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.00%18.97%18.71%20.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.104.684.605.25MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
18.00%5.556Min
20.59%4.857Max
18.97%5.271Mean
18.71%5.346Median
18.97%5.271IQM
18.87%5.299Margin-weighted

Draw

Prediction 21.74%4.60fair odd
EV -4.35%
Edge -0.990%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.36%21.74%21.72%23.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.654.074.104.40MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
21.36%4.683Min
23.13%4.324Max
21.74%4.600Mean
21.72%4.604Median
21.74%4.600IQM
21.72%4.604Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerVfL Wolfsburg (Local) ▼1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50% NM 57.84%EV -5.13% E -3.21% K -8.55% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 20.12%EV -12.74% E -2.77% K -3.54% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.04%EV -8.70% E -2.07% K -2.72% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-08 19:54
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29% NM 57.84%EV -6.32% E -4.00% K -10.89% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.87%EV -12.74% E -2.77% K -3.54% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 22.29%EV -10.88% E -2.65% K -3.51% G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-08 19:54
BetMGM1.57I 63.69% NM 60.18%EV -6.91% E -4.40% K -12.12% G +0.000%5.25I 19.05% NM 18.00%EV -0.407% E -0.078% K -0.096% G +0.000%4.33I 23.09% NM 21.82%EV -5.88% E -1.36% K -1.76% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 22:30
SportsBet1.57I 63.69% NM 59.85%EV -6.91% E -4.40% K -12.12% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.79%EV -5.15% E -1.03% K -1.29% G +0.000%4.40I 22.73% NM 21.36%EV -4.35% E -0.990% K -1.28% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 19:54
FanDuel1.57I 63.69% NM 59.85%EV -6.91% E -4.40% K -12.12% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.79%EV -5.15% E -1.03% K -1.29% G +0.000%4.40I 22.73% NM 21.36%EV -4.35% E -0.990% K -1.28% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 19:55
1xBet1.55I 64.52% NM 59.03%EV -8.10% E -5.22% K -14.72% G +0.000%4.77I 20.96% NM 19.18%EV -9.51% E -1.99% K -2.52% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 21.79%EV -8.70% E -2.07% K -2.72% G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-08 20:50
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36% NM 59.30%EV -9.28% E -6.07% K -17.51% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 19.10%EV -9.89% E -2.08% K -2.64% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 21.60%EV -8.70% E -2.07% K -2.72% G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-08 19:53
Neds1.53I 65.36% NM 57.97%EV -9.28% E -6.07% K -17.51% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.28%EV -12.74% E -2.77% K -3.54% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 22.74%EV -15.22% E -3.90% K -5.25% G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-08 19:54
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36% NM 57.97%EV -9.28% E -6.07% K -17.51% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.28%EV -12.74% E -2.77% K -3.54% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 22.74%EV -15.22% E -3.90% K -5.25% G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-08 19:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36% NM 57.97%EV -9.28% E -6.07% K -17.51% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.28%EV -12.74% E -2.77% K -3.54% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 22.74%EV -15.22% E -3.90% K -5.25% G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-08 19:54
Coral1.53I 65.36% NM 57.97%EV -9.28% E -6.07% K -17.51% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 19.28%EV -12.74% E -2.77% K -3.54% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 22.74%EV -15.22% E -3.90% K -5.25% G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-08 20:20
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67% NM 57.43%EV -11.06% E -7.37% K -22.12% G +0.000%4.33I 23.09% NM 19.90%EV -17.86% E -4.12% K -5.36% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 22.67%EV -17.40% E -4.58% K -6.21% G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-08 19:55
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67% NM 56.28%EV -11.06% E -7.37% K -22.12% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 20.59%EV -22.22% E -5.42% K -7.17% G +0.000%3.65I 27.40% NM 23.13%EV -20.66% E -5.66% K -7.80% G +0.000%18.5%2026-07-08 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth