Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Osnabrück v Hertha Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 11:30 UTC

Final: VfL Osnabrück 1–3 Hertha Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Osnabrück (Local)

Prediction 31.09%3.22fair odd
EV +1.04%
Edge +0.320%
Kelly +0.462%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.92%31.04%31.13%32.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.823.023.003.2535.46%33.12%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hertha Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 44.00%2.27fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -4.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.34%44.15%43.97%46.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.062.102.1652.91%48.48%47.62%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.91%4.01fair odd
EV -0.354%
Edge -0.088%
Kelly -0.118%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.80%24.81%24.91%25.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.473.723.754.0028.82%26.86%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Osnabrück (Local): 31.09%; Hertha Berlin (Visit): 44.00%; Draw: 24.91%. For VfL Osnabrück (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +1.04%E +0.320%K +0.462%G +0.005%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 10:51
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +1.04%E +0.320%K +0.462%G +0.005%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 10:51
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +1.04%E +0.320%K +0.462%G +0.005%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 10:50
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +1.04%E +0.320%K +0.462%G +0.005%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 10:51
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +1.04%E +0.320%K +0.462%G +0.005%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 10:51
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +1.04%E +0.320%K +0.462%G +0.005%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 10:51
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +1.04%E +0.320%K +0.462%G +0.005%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 10:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV +1.04%E +0.320%K +0.462%G +0.005%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 10:50
Pinnacle🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 30.44%EV -1.14%E -0.357%K -0.521%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.24%EV -5.84%E -2.73%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.32%EV -0.852%E -0.214%K -0.286%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-13 11:25
1xBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -2.07%E -0.657%K -0.962%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.59%EV -6.28%E -2.95%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.26%EV -6.33%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 11:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.74%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.32%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.94%EV -4.84%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 07:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.74%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.32%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.94%EV -4.84%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 07:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 11:25
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.79%EV -15.08%E -7.81%K -16.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -6.58%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 10:50
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.64%EV -15.08%E -7.81%K -16.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 10:51
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.64%EV -15.08%E -7.81%K -16.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 10:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.77%EV -15.52%E -8.08%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -3.62%E -1.17%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.77%EV -15.52%E -8.08%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 10:51
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.18%E -1.70%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.78%EV -4.96%E -2.30%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.58%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 08:10
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV -5.18%E -1.70%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.24%EV -6.72%E -3.17%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -6.58%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 10:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.99%EV -5.18%E -1.70%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.78%EV -16.84%E -8.91%K -18.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.23%EV -9.07%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 10:51
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.69%EV -5.49%E -1.81%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.63%EV -8.04%E -3.85%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -5.83%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 11:20
Suprabets🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.45%EV -5.49%E -1.81%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.93%EV -9.36%E -4.54%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.62%EV -6.33%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 11:25
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -0.354%E -0.088%K -0.118%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 11:25
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 10:40
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 11:15
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.58%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 10:41
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 08:05
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 10:49
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 11:24
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -9.07%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 11:25
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -9.07%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 11:20
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -6.73%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 08:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.16%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 08:05
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -6.72%E -3.17%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 08:10
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -11.56%E -3.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 08:05
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -8.29%E -2.81%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -11.56%E -3.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 08:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 11:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 11:20
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.981%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 11:11
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 11:20
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 11:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 11:20
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -9.80%E -4.78%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-13 10:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.58%EV -9.84%E -3.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.79%EV -12.88%E -6.51%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.63%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-13 11:05
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -10.46%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.68%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -6.58%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 11:20
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -10.46%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -9.80%E -4.78%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 10:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -10.46%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -9.80%E -4.78%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 10:35
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -10.46%E -3.63%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -9.80%E -4.78%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 10:35
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.06%EV -10.77%E -3.75%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.48%EV -9.80%E -4.78%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.06%EV -10.77%E -3.75%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.48%EV -9.80%E -4.78%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 10:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.43%EV -11.40%E -4.00%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.69%EV -9.80%E -4.78%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 08:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.80%EV -11.40%E -4.00%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.30%EV -13.56%E -3.91%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-13 11:18
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 30.89%EV -12.33%E -4.37%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.22%EV -13.32%E -6.76%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.89%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-13 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-09-13 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-09-13 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-09-13 11:25
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%1.1%2026-09-13 11:25
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%1.2%2026-09-13 11:25
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-09-13 11:25