Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

VfL Osnabrück v 1. FC Magdeburg

Inicio: 2026-08-15 11:00 UTC

Final: VfL Osnabrück 0–3 1. FC Magdeburg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

VfL Osnabrück (Local)

Predicción 38.63%2.59momio equitativo
EV -1.50%
Ventaja -0.588%
Kelly -0.968%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.92%38.50%38.64%39.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.272.412.402.5544.05%41.53%41.67%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visitante)

Predicción 35.58%2.81momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -1.05%
Kelly -1.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.80%35.64%35.58%36.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.482.592.602.7340.32%38.60%38.46%36.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.79%3.88momio equitativo
EV -2.77%
Ventaja -0.734%
Kelly -0.999%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.05%25.85%25.78%27.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.543.503.7730.30%28.28%28.57%26.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: VfL Osnabrück (Local): 38.63%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visitante): 35.58%; Empate: 25.79%. Para VfL Osnabrück (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.59. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.55, con un valor esperado de -1.50%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -1.50%E -0.588%K -0.968%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 09:15
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 10:54
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 10:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Pinnacle🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.87%EV -3.82%E -1.53%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.45%EV -2.86%E -1.05%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.67%EV -2.77%E -0.734%K -0.999%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 10:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.40%EV -4.20%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.21%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -3.28%E -0.876%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.40%EV -4.20%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.21%EV -6.42%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -3.28%E -0.876%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:34
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.33%EV -4.20%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.82%EV -2.86%E -1.05%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.85%EV -8.70%E -2.46%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 10:54
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.79%EV -5.36%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.86%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.28%E -0.876%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 10:54
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -5.36%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 10:29
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -5.36%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 10:44
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.36%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -3.28%E -0.876%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -5.36%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -5.36%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 10:54
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -6.14%E -2.52%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.58%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -13.60%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:54
Suprabets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.39%EV -6.06%E -2.30%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.67%EV -6.12%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:49
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -6.78%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -5.86%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:40
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -8.44%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 10:54
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 10:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 10:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 10:50
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.78%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 10:55
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.78%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 10:50
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 10:40
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 10:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 10:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 10:40
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.36%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -13.60%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 10:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.36%EV -7.29%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -13.60%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 10:54
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -6.78%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:53
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -6.78%E -2.59%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.57%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:53
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 10:54
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:54
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 10:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.30%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.80%EV -11.76%E -4.74%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -14.89%E -4.51%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 10:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.30%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.80%EV -11.76%E -4.74%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -14.89%E -4.51%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.30%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.80%EV -11.76%E -4.74%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -14.89%E -4.51%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 10:54
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -9.23%E -3.93%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92%EV -5.71%E -2.15%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 10:34
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.84%EV -9.23%E -3.93%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.80%EV -9.27%E -3.63%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -7.15%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 10:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.03%EV -10.00%E -4.29%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 10:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -11.16%E -4.85%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -7.49%E -2.88%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 10:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.16%E -4.85%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 10:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.16%E -4.85%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 10:30
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.16%E -4.85%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 10:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.16%E -4.85%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 10:50
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.16%E -4.85%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 10:34
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -11.16%E -4.85%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 10:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.83%EV -12.32%E -5.43%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.25%EV -11.05%E -4.42%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 10:38
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 38.03%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.98%-0.0%2026-08-15 10:40
Matchbook◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.87%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.29%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%0.5%2026-08-15 10:54
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.77%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.78%0.8%2026-08-15 10:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.77%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.78%0.8%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.77%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.78%0.8%2026-08-15 10:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.77%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.78%0.8%2026-08-15 10:54