Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Bochum v Greuther Fürth

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC

Final: VfL Bochum 1–1 Greuther Fürth

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Bochum (Local)

Prediction 49.87%2.01fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.631%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.88%49.71%50.02%51.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.871.871.9857.80%53.36%53.48%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greuther Fürth (Visit)

Prediction 25.25%3.96fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.328%
Kelly -0.441%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%25.38%25.13%28.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.543.553.9131.75%28.24%28.17%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.88%4.02fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -0.763%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%24.91%24.85%25.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.473.703.703.9028.82%27.04%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Bochum (Local): 49.87%; Greuther Fürth (Visit): 25.25%; Draw: 24.88%. For VfL Bochum (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.98, with an expected value of -1.25%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.35%EV -1.25%E -0.631%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -15.42%E -4.60%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 12:36
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.75%E -0.887%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -15.42%E -4.60%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:36
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.75%E -0.887%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -15.42%E -4.60%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:35
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.75%E -0.887%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -15.42%E -4.60%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:35
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.75%E -0.887%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -15.42%E -4.60%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:36
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.75%E -0.887%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -15.42%E -4.60%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.75%E -0.887%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -15.42%E -4.60%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:36
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -1.75%E -0.887%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -15.42%E -4.60%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -3.74%E -1.94%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -9.11%E -2.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -7.95%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 11:05
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.91%EV -3.74%E -1.94%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -19.21%E -6.00%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -9.19%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 12:36
Codere (IT)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.73%EV -4.24%E -2.21%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -9.11%E -2.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.95%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.88%EV -4.24%E -2.21%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -19.21%E -6.00%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 12:36
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.88%EV -4.24%E -2.21%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -19.21%E -6.00%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 12:36
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -4.74%E -2.48%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -9.11%E -2.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -2.97%E -0.763%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 11:04
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -5.24%E -2.76%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -9.11%E -2.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -2.97%E -0.763%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 15:54
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.30%EV -5.24%E -2.76%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -10.37%E -2.92%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -11.68%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 20:20
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.30%EV -5.24%E -2.76%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -10.37%E -2.92%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -11.68%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 20:20
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.97%EV -5.74%E -3.04%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.18%EV -5.32%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.90%EV -5.74%E -3.04%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.14%EV -20.47%E -6.50%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -11.68%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 12:36
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.90%EV -5.74%E -3.04%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.14%EV -20.47%E -6.50%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%EV -11.68%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 12:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.42%EV -6.24%E -3.32%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.11%E -2.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -6.71%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 14:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.03%EV -6.24%E -3.32%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.07%EV -20.47%E -6.50%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.90%EV -11.68%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-09 12:36
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.73%E -3.60%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.54%EV -2.04%E -0.526%K -0.709%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.54%EV -3.47%E -0.895%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.73%E -3.60%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.54%EV -2.04%E -0.526%K -0.709%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.54%EV -3.47%E -0.895%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 16:45
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.89%EV -6.73%E -3.60%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -1.54%E -0.394%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.72%EV -4.22%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 06:00
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -6.73%E -3.60%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -4.06%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 13:00
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -6.73%E -3.60%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.32%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 11:04
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -6.73%E -3.60%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -9.11%E -2.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -2.97%E -0.763%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 15:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -6.73%E -3.60%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.11%E -2.53%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.71%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 09:34
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -6.73%E -3.60%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.63%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 20:20
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -7.23%E -3.89%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.35%EV -1.28%E -0.328%K -0.441%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.47%EV -3.22%E -0.829%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 16:40
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.37%EV -7.23%E -3.89%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -5.32%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 17:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -7.73%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -1.54%E -0.394%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 21:40
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.73%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-07 16:34
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.73%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-07 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.73%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-07 16:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.73%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-07 16:35
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -7.73%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.63%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-07 11:04
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.97%EV -7.73%E -4.18%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -10.37%E -2.92%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -11.68%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 11:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.67%EV -8.23%E -4.47%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.80%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.54%EV -8.23%E -4.47%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -15.42%E -4.60%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 20:20
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -7.95%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 12:32
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -7.95%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 16:35
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -7.95%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 16:39
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -5.32%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -9.19%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 16:35
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -11.63%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -6.71%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 11:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -11.63%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 17:49
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -11.63%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 17:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -11.63%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 17:50
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -11.63%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 17:49
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.73%E -4.77%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -14.16%E -4.16%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.44%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-09 11:00
Suprabets🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.84%EV -9.23%E -5.07%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.48%EV -4.57%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -6.71%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 06:52
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.45%EV -9.23%E -5.07%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -16.68%E -5.06%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.84%EV -11.68%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 20:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.50%EV -11.72%E -6.62%K -15.22%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.25%EV -12.39%E -3.57%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.25%EV -13.67%E -3.94%K -5.54%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-07 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.35%EV -11.72%E -6.62%K -15.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.69%EV -14.16%E -4.16%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -12.93%E -3.69%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-09 06:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.29%EV -13.72%E -7.93%K -18.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -11.63%E -3.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -12.93%E -3.69%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-09 10:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-09-09 17:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.69%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%3.8%2026-09-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.69%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%3.8%2026-09-09 11:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.69%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%3.8%2026-09-09 13:55
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.72%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%5.1%2026-09-09 14:15
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 48.65%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%10.5%2026-09-09 13:40