Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Darmstadt 98 v FC Schalke 04

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Darmstadt 98 (Local)

Prediction 37.12%2.69fair odd
EV +0.596%
Edge +0.220%
Kelly +0.348%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.04%37.14%37.08%38.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.482.502.7144.44%40.30%40.00%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Schalke 04 (Visit)

Prediction 34.81%2.87fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.655%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.69%34.93%34.83%37.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.632.612.8240.82%38.01%38.31%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.07%3.56fair odd
EV +1.07%
Edge +0.296%
Kelly +0.410%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.77%27.93%28.08%29.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.303.303.6034.72%30.31%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SV Darmstadt 98 (Local): 37.12%; FC Schalke 04 (Visit): 34.81%; Draw: 28.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -12.99%E -5.19%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +1.07%E +0.296%K +0.410%G +0.004%7.8%2026-03-15 17:35
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -3.49%E -1.34%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -7.76%E -2.93%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -1.74%E -0.497%K -0.696%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -8.46%E -3.22%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -1.74%E -0.497%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-16 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.67%EV -8.46%E -3.22%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -1.74%E -0.497%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-16 18:04
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.42%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.42%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 18:04
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.42%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.42%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 18:05
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.42%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 18:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.42%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 18:04
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.42%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.911%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 18:05
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.34%EV -3.86%E -1.49%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.30%EV -1.85%E -0.655%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.36%EV -4.27%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 19:19
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -5.34%E -2.10%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -6.02%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -4.55%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-21 19:09
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -4.55%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 19:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.55%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-21 13:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.55%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-21 13:29
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.27%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.55%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-16 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.27%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.55%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-16 18:05
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.06%E -3.70%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -4.55%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-16 18:05
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.20%EV -5.34%E -2.10%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -4.28%E -1.56%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.31%EV -5.95%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 19:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -5.34%E -2.10%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.02%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.95%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 19:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -5.34%E -2.10%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.02%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.95%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 19:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -9.06%E -3.70%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -5.95%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-21 19:09
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.04%EV +0.596%E +0.220%K +0.348%G +0.002%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.52%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.43%EV -6.23%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 19:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.88%EV -3.49%E -1.34%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.24%EV -2.54%E -0.909%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.88%EV -6.79%E -2.05%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 19:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.88%EV -3.49%E -1.34%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.24%EV -2.54%E -0.909%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.88%EV -6.79%E -2.05%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -2.54%E -0.909%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 19:04
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -5.34%E -2.10%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -6.02%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 19:24
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -4.28%E -1.56%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 19:13
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.02%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 18:59
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.02%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 19:07
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.02%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 19:05
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -11.65%E -4.90%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -12.99%E -5.19%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-16 18:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -11.65%E -4.90%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -12.99%E -5.19%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -7.36%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-16 18:04
Suprabets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.78%EV -5.71%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.73%EV -6.37%E -2.37%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.48%EV -7.92%E -2.41%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 19:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.88%EV -6.09%E -2.41%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.68%EV -6.37%E -2.37%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -7.92%E -2.41%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 19:24
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.20%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.42%EV -6.72%E -2.51%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -8.76%E -2.70%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-21 19:04
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.20%EV -7.94%E -3.20%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.42%EV -6.72%E -2.51%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -8.76%E -2.70%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-21 19:04
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -7.76%E -2.93%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.76%E -2.70%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 19:14
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.16%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.16%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 18:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.16%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 18:49
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.20%E -2.88%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.16%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 18:50
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.91%E -4.55%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -8.81%E -3.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.16%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-21 19:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -12.77%E -5.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.15%EV -12.99%E -5.19%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.46%EV -10.16%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-21 19:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.64%EV -12.03%E -5.07%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.31%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.05%EV -10.72%E -3.37%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-21 19:06
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.24%EV -14.62%E -6.36%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.83%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -11.57%E -3.67%K -5.38%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-21 19:10
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -9.06%E -3.70%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.97%E -4.18%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-21 19:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -9.06%E -3.70%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.97%E -4.18%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-21 19:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -9.06%E -3.70%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.97%E -4.18%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-21 19:04
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -9.06%E -3.70%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.97%E -4.18%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-21 19:10
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -10.91%E -4.55%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.97%E -4.18%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-21 19:13
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.00%EV -12.77%E -5.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.50%EV -12.29%E -4.88%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.50%EV -14.37%E -4.71%K -7.01%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-21 19:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.30%EV -16.48%E -7.32%K -13.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.25%EV -14.73%E -6.01%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.45%EV -17.18%E -5.82%K -8.81%G +0.000%19.2%2026-03-21 19:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.99%EV -11.65%E -4.90%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.26%EV -12.99%E -5.19%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.74%EV -19.15%E -6.65%K -10.18%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-21 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.51%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-03-21 19:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.00%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.67%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33%0.8%2026-03-21 19:24
Matchbook2.66I 37.59%NM 37.17%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.57%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%1.1%2026-03-21 19:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%1.2%2026-03-21 19:24
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.11%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-03-21 19:14
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 37.55%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%4.0%2026-03-21 19:10