Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Paderborn v Hertha Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 12:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Paderborn (Local)

Prediction 42.23%2.37fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.685%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.11%42.41%42.22%46.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.142.182.3352.08%46.70%45.87%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hertha Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 31.29%3.20fair odd
EV +3.24%
Edge +0.983%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%31.20%31.33%32.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.012.983.3037.04%33.24%33.56%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.546%
Kelly -0.748%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.15%26.39%26.45%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.513.503.7033.33%28.52%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Paderborn (Local): 42.23%; Hertha Berlin (Visit): 31.29%; Draw: 26.48%. For Hertha Berlin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -14.69%E -7.27%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV +3.24%E +0.983%K +1.41%G +0.046%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -2.02%E -0.546%K -0.748%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-20 05:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -14.69%E -7.27%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV +3.24%E +0.983%K +1.41%G +0.046%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -2.02%E -0.546%K -0.748%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -14.69%E -7.27%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-20 05:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -14.69%E -7.27%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-20 05:35
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -14.69%E -7.27%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-20 05:36
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -14.69%E -7.27%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-20 05:36
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -14.69%E -7.27%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-20 05:35
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -14.69%E -7.27%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-20 05:35
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -14.69%E -7.27%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-20 05:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.23%EV -15.53%E -7.77%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-20 05:36
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.23%EV -15.53%E -7.77%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-20 05:35
LeoVegas🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.60%EV -16.80%E -8.53%K -17.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV +1.68%E +0.517%K +0.746%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-20 11:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.34%EV -18.91%E -9.85%K -20.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.24%EV -1.45%E -0.460%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-20 05:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.34%EV -18.91%E -9.85%K -20.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.24%EV -1.45%E -0.460%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-20 05:35
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.54%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.87%EV -3.01%E -0.972%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.59%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-22 12:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -3.01%E -0.972%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-22 10:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.44%EV -3.71%E -1.63%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.41%EV -3.64%E -1.18%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -2.02%E -0.546%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-22 11:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.44%EV -3.71%E -1.63%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.41%EV -3.64%E -1.18%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -2.02%E -0.546%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-22 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.39%EV -5.82%E -2.61%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -4.58%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -5.99%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 12:00
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.54%EV -1.60%E -0.685%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.94%EV -5.20%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV -3.34%E -0.916%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-22 12:00
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 12:00
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 11:58
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.99%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 12:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 12:00
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 11:59
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 12:00
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 12:00
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.31%EV -7.93%E -3.64%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -6.77%E -2.27%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -8.64%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-22 11:59
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.31%EV -7.93%E -3.64%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -6.77%E -2.27%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -8.64%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-22 12:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.25%EV -11.31%E -5.39%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.58%EV -7.08%E -2.38%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.17%EV -8.11%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-22 11:59
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.99%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-22 11:58
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.61%EV -6.79%E -1.93%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-22 12:00
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 11:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-22 12:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-22 11:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.81%EV -5.82%E -2.61%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.71%EV -8.02%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.48%EV -6.79%E -1.93%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-22 11:59
Suprabets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.54%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.90%EV -8.33%E -2.84%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.55%EV -6.79%E -1.93%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 11:56
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 11:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -9.20%E -4.28%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.59%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -5.99%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-22 12:00
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-22 12:00
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-22 11:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-22 11:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-22 11:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -11.31%E -5.39%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-22 12:00
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 12:00
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.20%E -4.28%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-22 11:59
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -9.20%E -4.28%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.94%E -4.29%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-22 11:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -15.53%E -7.77%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -20.56%E -6.85%K -10.28%G +0.000%18.1%2026-02-21 06:25
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -10.84%E -3.80%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 11:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.20%E -4.28%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.40%E -4.43%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-20 05:35
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.20%E -4.28%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.40%E -4.43%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-20 05:35
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.20%E -4.28%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.40%E -4.43%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-20 05:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.20%E -4.28%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.40%E -4.43%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-20 05:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 41.94%EV -12.58%E -6.08%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.34%EV -13.34%E -4.82%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.71%EV -13.94%E -4.29%K -6.19%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-22 11:58
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -13.42%E -6.55%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -13.96%E -5.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%14.6%2026-02-22 12:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 42.53%EV -17.65%E -9.05%K -18.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.72%EV -15.53%E -5.75%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.75%EV -17.91%E -5.78%K -8.53%G +0.000%20.6%2026-02-22 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.10%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-02-22 12:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.10%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-02-22 12:00
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 42.10%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-02-22 12:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-02-22 12:00
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.95%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%1.9%2026-02-22 12:00