Language:English
Rot-Weiss Essen v Greuther Fürth
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)
Prediction 37.73%2.65fair odd
EV -0.772%
Edge -0.293%
Kelly -0.473%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.14%37.50%37.83%38.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.502.502.6344.44%40.07%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Greuther Fürth (Visit)
Prediction 35.79%2.79fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.81%35.98%35.69%38.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.522.502.6843.48%39.75%40.00%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -0.690%
Kelly -0.948%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.67%26.52%26.48%27.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.453.483.6830.30%29.01%28.78%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 37.73%; Greuther Fürth (Visit): 35.79%; Draw: 26.48%. For Rot-Weiss Essen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -0.772%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -0.772%E -0.293%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -12.32%E -5.03%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -0.772%E -0.293%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -12.32%E -5.03%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.14%EV -0.772%E -0.293%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.83%EV -14.83%E -6.23%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -1.90%E -0.732%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.04%EV -13.04%E -5.37%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -1.90%E -0.732%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.04%EV -13.04%E -5.37%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -1.90%E -0.732%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.04%EV -13.04%E -5.37%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -1.90%E -0.732%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.04%EV -13.04%E -5.37%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -1.90%E -0.732%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.04%EV -13.04%E -5.37%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -1.90%E -0.732%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.04%EV -13.04%E -5.37%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -1.90%E -0.732%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.04%EV -13.04%E -5.37%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -1.90%E -0.732%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.04%EV -13.04%E -5.37%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -1.90%E -0.732%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -14.11%E -5.88%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.49%EV -2.66%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.23%EV -4.45%E -1.67%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.28%EV -2.54%E -0.690%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-22 18:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.44%EV -3.79%E -1.49%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.03%EV -5.16%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.52%EV -4.66%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -3.79%E -1.49%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -8.74%E -3.43%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.66%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.91%EV -5.68%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -5.16%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.66%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.51%EV -5.68%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -6.95%E -2.67%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -5.68%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.16%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.68%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.95%E -2.67%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.41%EV -5.68%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.16%EV -16.97%E -7.32%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.43%EV -11.28%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.41%EV -5.68%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.16%EV -16.97%E -7.32%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.43%EV -11.28%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.57%EV -6.05%E -2.43%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -5.16%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-22 18:18 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.34%EV -6.43%E -2.59%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.10%EV -17.69%E -7.69%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.08%EV -7.56%E -3.09%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.81%EV -4.09%E -1.53%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -8.90%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.56%E -3.09%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.49%EV -6.24%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-22 18:18 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.56%E -3.09%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.95%E -2.67%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.60%EV -7.56%E -3.09%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.70%EV -7.67%E -2.97%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.60%EV -7.56%E -3.09%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.70%EV -7.67%E -2.97%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.56%E -3.09%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.24%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.56%E -3.09%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.24%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.56%E -3.09%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.24%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.56%E -3.09%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.24%E -2.38%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.04%EV -8.32%E -3.42%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.55%EV -6.95%E -2.67%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -10.20%E -4.29%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -10.20%E -4.29%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.51%EV -10.58%E -4.46%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.51%EV -10.58%E -4.46%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.86%EV -11.34%E -4.82%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.59%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.56%EV -11.28%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.95%EV -13.22%E -5.75%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.37%EV -14.11%E -5.88%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.89%EV -15.11%E -6.72%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.12%EV -11.28%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-22 18:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.