Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Karlsruher SC v VfL Wolfsburg

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 11:00 UTC

Final: Karlsruher SC 2–5 VfL Wolfsburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Karlsruher SC (Local)

Prediction 31.43%3.18fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.660%
Kelly +0.954%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.91%31.33%31.41%32.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.992.953.2536.36%33.40%33.90%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 42.70%2.34fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.11%42.89%42.73%45.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.132.152.2851.55%47.05%46.51%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.87%3.87fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -0.986%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.46%25.77%25.85%26.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.573.553.7630.30%28.01%28.17%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karlsruher SC (Local): 31.43%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 42.70%; Draw: 25.87%. For Karlsruher SC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
1xBet🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.76%EV +0.260%E +0.082%K +0.119%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.08%EV -5.82%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 10:55
Pinnacle🎯3.11I 32.15%NM 31.12%EV -2.25%E -0.725%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.44%EV -2.65%E -1.16%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.44%EV -5.31%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-29 10:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.57%E -0.829%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 10:50
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -2.57%E -0.829%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.65%EV -15.88%E -8.06%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -8.15%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 10:35
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -2.57%E -0.829%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.49%EV -15.88%E -8.06%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -2.57%E -0.829%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.49%EV -15.88%E -8.06%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.96%EV -3.20%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.34%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.70%EV -4.01%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 10:35
LowVig.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.96%EV -3.20%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.34%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.70%EV -4.01%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 10:35
Coolbet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 10:56
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.36%EV -16.74%E -8.58%K -17.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-29 10:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.36%EV -16.74%E -8.58%K -17.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-29 10:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.49%EV -17.17%E -8.85%K -18.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.58%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Suprabets🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.75%EV -4.45%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.69%EV -6.49%E -2.96%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.56%EV -8.93%E -2.54%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 10:37
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.45%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.70%EV -5.64%E -2.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.57%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 10:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 10:40
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 10:43
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 10:45
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 10:55
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 10:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -2.98%E -0.794%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 10:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 10:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 10:50
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 10:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.83%EV -7.91%E -2.70%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.80%EV -2.72%E -0.723%K -0.986%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 10:55
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:45
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:45
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:40
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.29%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 10:40
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.29%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 10:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.89%EV -9.48%E -4.47%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.76%EV -8.67%E -2.46%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 10:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 10:40
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 10:45
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 10:50
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 10:54
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.68%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -2.98%E -0.794%K -1.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 10:45
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.02%EV -6.92%E -3.17%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 10:55
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -14.62%E -4.43%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 10:40
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -10.43%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 10:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.03%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.71%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -8.15%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:45
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:45
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -13.57%E -4.93%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -12.47%E -6.08%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-29 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 30.04%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.03%-0.0%2026-08-29 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-29 10:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-29 10:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-29 10:45
Matchbook3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-29 10:55
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.88%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30%1.4%2026-08-29 10:55