Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Karlsruher SC v VfL Wolfsburg

Inicio: 2026-08-29 11:00 UTC

Final: Karlsruher SC 2–5 VfL Wolfsburg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Karlsruher SC (Local)

Predicción 31.43%3.18momio equitativo
EV +2.15%
Ventaja +0.660%
Kelly +0.954%
Crecimiento +0.020%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.91%31.33%31.41%32.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.992.953.2536.36%33.40%33.90%30.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visitante)

Predicción 42.70%2.34momio equitativo
EV -2.65%
Ventaja -1.16%
Kelly -2.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.11%42.89%42.73%45.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.942.132.152.2851.55%47.05%46.51%43.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.87%3.87momio equitativo
EV -2.72%
Ventaja -0.723%
Kelly -0.986%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.46%25.77%25.85%26.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.573.553.7630.30%28.01%28.17%26.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Karlsruher SC (Local): 31.43%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visitante): 42.70%; Empate: 25.87%. Para Karlsruher SC (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.18. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.15%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -12.04%E -5.85%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:35
1xBet🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.76%EV +0.260%E +0.082%K +0.119%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.08%EV -5.82%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 10:55
Pinnacle🎯3.11I 32.15%NM 31.12%EV -2.25%E -0.725%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.44%EV -2.65%E -1.16%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.44%EV -5.31%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-29 10:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.57%E -0.829%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 10:50
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -2.57%E -0.829%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.65%EV -15.88%E -8.06%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -8.15%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 10:35
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -2.57%E -0.829%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.49%EV -15.88%E -8.06%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -2.57%E -0.829%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.49%EV -15.88%E -8.06%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.96%EV -3.20%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.34%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.70%EV -4.01%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 10:35
LowVig.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.96%EV -3.20%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.34%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.70%EV -4.01%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 10:35
Coolbet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 10:56
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.36%EV -16.74%E -8.58%K -17.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-29 10:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.36%EV -16.74%E -8.58%K -17.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-29 10:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.49%EV -17.17%E -8.85%K -18.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.58%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Suprabets🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.75%EV -4.45%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.69%EV -6.49%E -2.96%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.56%EV -8.93%E -2.54%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 10:37
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.45%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.70%EV -5.64%E -2.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.57%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 10:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 10:40
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 10:43
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 10:45
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.86%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 10:55
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 10:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -2.98%E -0.794%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 10:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 10:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 10:50
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 10:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.83%EV -7.91%E -2.70%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.80%EV -2.72%E -0.723%K -0.986%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 10:55
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:45
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:45
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 10:40
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.29%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 10:40
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.29%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -10.74%E -3.11%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 10:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.89%EV -9.48%E -4.47%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.76%EV -8.67%E -2.46%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 10:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 10:40
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 10:45
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 10:50
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 10:54
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.68%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -2.98%E -0.794%K -1.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 10:45
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.02%EV -6.92%E -3.17%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 10:55
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -14.62%E -4.43%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 10:40
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -10.43%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 10:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.03%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.71%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -8.15%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:45
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:45
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -13.57%E -4.93%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -12.47%E -6.08%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -12.03%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-29 10:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 30.04%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.03%-0.0%2026-08-29 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-29 10:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-29 10:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-29 10:45
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-29 10:55
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.88%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30%1.4%2026-08-29 10:55