Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel v VfL Osnabrück

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:00 UTC

Final: Holstein Kiel 1–1 VfL Osnabrück

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 53.15%1.88fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -6.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.84%53.20%53.10%54.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.731.731.7960.98%57.82%57.80%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Osnabrück (Visit)

Prediction 23.50%4.25fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.46%23.48%23.50%24.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.943.954.2027.78%25.39%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.35%4.28fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.292%
Kelly -0.382%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.47%23.32%23.40%24.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.943.904.2327.03%25.39%25.64%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Holstein Kiel (Local): 53.15%; VfL Osnabrück (Visit): 23.50%; Draw: 23.35%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.23, with an expected value of -1.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.65%EV -4.86%E -2.72%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.54%EV -4.11%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.81%EV -1.70%E -0.404%K -0.530%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-18 14:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -4.86%E -2.72%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-16 23:05
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.51%EV -5.40%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -1.94%E -0.461%K -0.605%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 20:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.40%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 21:45
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -3.64%E -0.887%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 16:06
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -3.64%E -0.887%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 20:30
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 11:05
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.86%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.63%EV -6.93%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.51%EV -7.07%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 15:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -3.64%E -0.887%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 11:05
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 14:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.21%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.40%EV -6.46%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.40%EV -7.07%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 14:50
Suprabets🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.12%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.21%EV -9.75%E -2.54%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-17 22:43
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-17 20:55
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 11:05
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-16 00:04
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 11:01
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-16 00:05
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 22:45
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 22:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 22:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.63%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.90%EV -2.46%E -0.594%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.47%EV -1.23%E -0.292%K -0.382%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 02:51
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.63%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.90%EV -2.46%E -0.594%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.47%EV -1.23%E -0.292%K -0.382%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 02:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.16%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-17 20:55
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 15:14
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -9.51%E -2.47%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-18 15:08
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:01
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 22:44
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 22:45
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-17 20:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.84%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:00
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.84%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.84%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:00
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.84%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.62%EV -8.58%E -4.99%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -13.04%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.91%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-17 07:05
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -9.65%E -5.68%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-18 14:25
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.45%EV -9.65%E -5.68%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -12.44%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.25%EV -9.65%E -5.68%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -15.39%E -4.27%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-17 07:00
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -10.18%E -6.02%K -14.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 14:29
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.03%EV -10.71%E -6.38%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-16 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.61%EV -10.71%E -6.38%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.70%EV -12.33%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.70%EV -12.91%E -3.46%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-17 11:03
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.03%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -7.16%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.13%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-16 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.03%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -7.16%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.13%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-16 10:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.72%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.80%EV -13.04%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -12.44%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-18 15:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.56%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -13.04%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-18 11:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.01%EV -11.77%E -7.09%K -17.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -7.16%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-16 10:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.01%EV -11.77%E -7.09%K -17.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -7.16%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-16 10:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.16%EV -12.84%E -7.83%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.77%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-16 10:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.53%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.56%1.9%2026-09-17 16:25