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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Holstein Kiel v VfL Osnabrück

Inicio: 2026-09-19 11:00 UTC

Final: Holstein Kiel 1–1 VfL Osnabrück

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Predicción 53.15%1.88momio equitativo
EV -4.86%
Ventaja -2.72%
Kelly -6.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.84%53.20%53.10%54.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.641.731.731.7960.98%57.82%57.80%55.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

VfL Osnabrück (Visitante)

Predicción 23.50%4.25momio equitativo
EV -1.29%
Ventaja -0.307%
Kelly -0.403%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.46%23.48%23.50%24.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.943.954.2027.78%25.39%25.32%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.35%4.28momio equitativo
EV -1.23%
Ventaja -0.292%
Kelly -0.382%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.47%23.32%23.40%24.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.703.943.904.2327.03%25.39%25.64%23.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Holstein Kiel (Local): 53.15%; VfL Osnabrück (Visitante): 23.50%; Empate: 23.35%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.28. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.23, con un valor esperado de -1.23%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.65%EV -4.86%E -2.72%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.54%EV -4.11%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.81%EV -1.70%E -0.404%K -0.530%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-18 14:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -4.86%E -2.72%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-16 23:05
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.51%EV -5.40%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -1.94%E -0.461%K -0.605%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 20:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.40%E -3.03%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 21:45
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -3.64%E -0.887%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 16:06
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -3.64%E -0.887%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 20:30
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 11:05
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.86%EV -5.93%E -3.35%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.63%EV -6.93%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.51%EV -7.07%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 15:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -3.64%E -0.887%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 11:05
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 14:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.21%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.40%EV -6.46%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.40%EV -7.07%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 14:50
Suprabets🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.12%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.21%EV -9.75%E -2.54%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-17 22:43
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-17 20:55
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 11:05
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-16 00:04
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 11:01
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-16 00:05
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 22:45
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 22:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 22:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.63%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.90%EV -2.46%E -0.594%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.47%EV -1.23%E -0.292%K -0.382%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 02:51
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.63%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.90%EV -2.46%E -0.594%K -0.782%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.47%EV -1.23%E -0.292%K -0.382%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 02:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.16%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-17 20:55
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 15:14
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -9.51%E -2.47%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-18 15:08
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:01
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 10:00
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 22:44
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 22:45
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-17 20:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.84%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:00
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.84%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.84%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:00
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.84%EV -8.05%E -4.66%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 21:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.62%EV -8.58%E -4.99%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -13.04%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.91%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-17 07:05
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -9.65%E -5.68%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.27%E -2.97%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-18 14:25
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.45%EV -9.65%E -5.68%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -12.44%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.25%EV -9.65%E -5.68%K -13.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -15.39%E -4.27%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-17 07:00
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -10.18%E -6.02%K -14.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 14:29
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.03%EV -10.71%E -6.38%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-16 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.61%EV -10.71%E -6.38%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.70%EV -12.33%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.70%EV -12.91%E -3.46%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-17 11:03
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.03%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -7.16%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.13%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-16 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.03%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -7.16%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.13%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-16 10:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.72%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.80%EV -13.04%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -12.44%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-18 15:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.56%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -13.04%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -13.61%E -3.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-18 11:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.01%EV -11.77%E -7.09%K -17.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -7.16%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-16 10:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.01%EV -11.77%E -7.09%K -17.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -7.16%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.29%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-16 10:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.16%EV -12.84%E -7.83%K -20.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.77%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-16 10:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-09-18 12:35
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.53%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.56%1.9%2026-09-17 16:25