Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.80
assuming max odds 2.65
assuming max odds 3.63
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Holstein Kiel (Local): 35.97%; FC St. Pauli (Visit): 37.19%; Draw: 26.84%. For Holstein Kiel (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.713%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.90%EV +0.713%E +0.255%K +0.396%G +0.003% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.59%EV -8.51%E -3.46%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -2.88%E -1.07%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.51%EV -4.05%E -1.57%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.66%EV -2.57%E -0.707%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-14 16:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-14 15:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 15:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 15:43 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 15:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 16:23 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 16:22 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 16:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-14 15:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -12.60%E -5.36%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-14 16:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.02%EV -6.84%E -2.64%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.32%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 16:19 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.22%EV -7.20%E -2.79%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.23%EV -6.65%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.55%EV -5.52%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 16:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 35.81%EV -9.00%E -3.56%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 27.21%EV -10.62%E -3.19%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-14 15:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-14 15:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-14 16:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 15:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-14 15:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -12.60%E -5.36%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-14 15:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 16:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 35.69%EV -11.16%E -4.52%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.19%EV -11.86%E -5.00%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -15.47%E -6.58%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-14 16:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -15.47%E -6.58%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -15.47%E -6.58%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94% | 0.3% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94% | 0.3% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94% | 0.3% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94% | 0.3% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.64% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75% | 1.0% | 2026-08-14 15:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.86% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.22% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.92% | 1.8% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |