Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Holstein Kiel v FC St. Pauli

Coup d’envoi : 2026-08-14 16:30 UTC

Score final : Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC St. Pauli

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prévision 35.97%2.78cote équitable
EV +0.713%
Avantage +0.255%
Kelly +0.396%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 2.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.90%36.08%35.93%37.82%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.352.542.552.8042.55%39.30%39.14%35.71%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

FC St. Pauli (Visiteur)

Prévision 37.19%2.69cote équitable
EV -1.45%
Avantage -0.546%
Kelly -0.877%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.65

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.39%37.11%37.19%38.59%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.352.512.502.6542.55%39.80%40.00%37.74%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 26.84%3.73cote équitable
EV -2.57%
Avantage -0.707%
Kelly -0.976%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.77%26.81%26.88%27.73%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.253.433.483.6330.77%29.18%28.78%27.55%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Holstein Kiel (Local) : 35.97% ; FC St. Pauli (Visiteur) : 37.19% ; Match nul : 26.84%. Pour Holstein Kiel (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 2.78. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 2.80, soit une espérance positive de +0.713%.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.90%EV +0.713%E +0.255%K +0.396%G +0.003%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.59%EV -8.51%E -3.46%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 16:25
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -2.88%E -1.07%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.51%EV -4.05%E -1.57%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.66%EV -2.57%E -0.707%K -0.976%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-14 15:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 15:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 15:50
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 15:44
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 15:49
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:24
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 15:44
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 15:39
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 15:44
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 15:43
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 15:45
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 15:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 15:44
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 16:25
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 16:23
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 16:22
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 16:05
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 15:45
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 16:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -12.60%E -5.36%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-14 16:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.02%EV -6.84%E -2.64%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.32%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 16:19
Suprabets🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.22%EV -7.20%E -2.79%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.23%EV -6.65%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.55%EV -5.52%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.81%EV -9.00%E -3.56%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.21%EV -10.62%E -3.19%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-14 16:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 15:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 15:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 15:44
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-14 15:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 16:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -12.60%E -5.36%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 15:49
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.69%EV -11.16%E -4.52%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.19%EV -11.86%E -5.00%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-14 16:25
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 16:10
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 16:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -15.47%E -6.58%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-14 16:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -15.47%E -6.58%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-14 16:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -15.47%E -6.58%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-14 16:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94%0.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94%0.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94%0.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Matchbook◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94%0.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.64%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-08-14 15:55
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.86%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.92%1.8%2026-08-14 16:25