Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Holstein Kiel v FC St. Pauli

Início: 2026-08-14 16:30 UTC

Final: Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC St. Pauli

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Previsão 35.97%2.78odd justa
EV +0.713%
Vantagem +0.255%
Kelly +0.396%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
33.90%36.08%35.93%37.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.352.542.552.8042.55%39.30%39.14%35.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC St. Pauli (Visitante)

Previsão 37.19%2.69odd justa
EV -1.45%
Vantagem -0.546%
Kelly -0.877%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.65

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
35.39%37.11%37.19%38.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.352.512.502.6542.55%39.80%40.00%37.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.84%3.73odd justa
EV -2.57%
Vantagem -0.707%
Kelly -0.976%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.63

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.77%26.81%26.88%27.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.433.483.6330.77%29.18%28.78%27.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Holstein Kiel (Local): 35.97%; FC St. Pauli (Visitante): 37.19%; Empate: 26.84%. Para Holstein Kiel (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.78. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.80, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.713%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.90%EV +0.713%E +0.255%K +0.396%G +0.003%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.59%EV -8.51%E -3.46%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 16:25
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -2.88%E -1.07%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.51%EV -4.05%E -1.57%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.66%EV -2.57%E -0.707%K -0.976%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-14 15:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 15:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -4.68%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 15:50
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 15:44
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.07%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 15:49
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:24
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -5.76%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 15:44
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 15:39
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 15:44
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 15:43
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 15:45
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 15:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 15:44
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 16:25
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 16:23
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 16:22
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 16:05
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 15:45
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 16:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -6.48%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -12.60%E -5.36%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-14 16:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.02%EV -6.84%E -2.64%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.32%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 16:19
Suprabets🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.22%EV -7.20%E -2.79%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.23%EV -6.65%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.55%EV -5.52%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.81%EV -9.00%E -3.56%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.21%EV -10.62%E -3.19%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-14 16:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.31%E -1.27%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 15:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 15:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.37%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 15:44
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-14 15:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 16:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:39
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.88%E -3.63%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -12.60%E -5.36%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 15:49
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -10.80%E -4.35%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -1.45%E -0.546%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 16:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.69%EV -11.16%E -4.52%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.19%EV -11.86%E -5.00%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -12.77%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-14 16:25
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 16:10
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.67%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -5.17%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 16:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -15.47%E -6.58%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-14 16:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -15.47%E -6.58%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-14 16:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -15.47%E -6.58%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -7.03%E -2.81%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-14 16:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94%0.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94%0.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94%0.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Matchbook◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94%0.3%2026-08-14 16:25
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.64%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-08-14 15:55
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.86%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.92%1.8%2026-08-14 16:25