The School of Odds
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Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 12:30 UTC

Final: Holstein Kiel 3–0 Dynamo Dresden

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 41.39%2.42fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%41.39%41.38%42.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.222.252.3248.78%44.95%44.44%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dynamo Dresden (Visit)

Prediction 32.86%3.04fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.582%
Kelly -0.874%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.90%32.90%32.86%34.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.802.9938.46%35.73%35.71%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.74%3.88fair odd
EV -0.889%
Edge -0.231%
Kelly -0.312%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.41%25.71%25.77%26.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.383.583.603.8529.59%27.96%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Holstein Kiel (Local): 41.39%; Dynamo Dresden (Visit): 32.86%; Draw: 25.74%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -0.889%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.70%EV -3.97%E -1.71%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.36%EV -1.74%E -0.582%K -0.874%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV -3.98%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-25 12:10
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.34%EV -4.79%E -2.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -0.889%E -0.231%K -0.312%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 11:39
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.79%E -2.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.23%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.79%E -2.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -6.04%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -4.79%E -2.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.32%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 11:39
picklebet_au🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.79%E -2.08%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.32%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 11:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.76%EV -5.62%E -2.47%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.72%EV -4.37%E -1.50%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.52%EV -3.98%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.76%EV -5.62%E -2.47%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.72%EV -4.37%E -1.50%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.52%EV -3.98%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 11:40
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.84%EV -6.04%E -2.66%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.42%EV -3.71%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.74%EV -5.01%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 12:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.32%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 12:00
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.32%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 12:04
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 11:50
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 11:50
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 11:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 11:50
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 11:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 11:50
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 11:40
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.32%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 12:05
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.32%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 11:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.23%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -2.18%E -0.573%K -0.777%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 11:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 11:40
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 11:39
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 12:15
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.47%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.47%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.47%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 12:04
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.47%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 12:10
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -11.19%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 11:39
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -11.19%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 11:40
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.26%EV -6.86%E -3.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.58%EV -13.90%E -5.30%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -7.32%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.73%EV -7.69%E -3.45%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.12%EV -7.65%E -2.72%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 00:05
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -8.93%E -4.06%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 11:38
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -8.93%E -4.06%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.75%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 11:39
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -8.93%E -4.06%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -8.61%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 12:05
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.93%E -4.06%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -8.61%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-25 12:05
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -8.93%E -4.06%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -12.47%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -8.93%E -4.06%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -12.47%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 11:40
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -8.93%E -4.06%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -12.47%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -8.93%E -4.06%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -12.47%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 11:40
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -9.76%E -4.48%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -8.61%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 11:50
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.51%EV -10.18%E -4.69%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-25 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.51%EV -10.18%E -4.69%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-25 11:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.37%EV -10.59%E -4.90%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 11:50
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -11.00%E -5.12%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-25 11:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -11.00%E -5.12%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-25 12:15
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -11.00%E -5.12%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.47%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-25 11:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.25%EV -11.00%E -5.12%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -7.32%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 11:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.44%EV -11.42%E -5.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -11.19%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 11:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.44%EV -11.42%E -5.34%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -11.19%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.19%EV -11.83%E -5.55%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.86%EV -12.26%E -4.59%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.96%EV -12.99%E -3.84%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-25 12:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.52%EV -12.25%E -5.78%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.97%EV -12.26%E -4.59%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -11.19%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-25 11:38
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -15.14%E -7.39%K -14.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.25%EV -11.19%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-25 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-25 12:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-25 12:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-25 12:05
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-25 12:05
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.98%1.3%2026-10-25 12:05
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49%1.9%2026-10-25 11:40