Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 39.74%2.52fair odd
EV -0.662%
Edge -0.265%
Kelly -0.441%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.70%39.85%39.73%41.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.342.352.5047.62%42.77%42.55%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 33.16%3.02fair odd
EV +2.78%
Edge +0.898%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.40%33.03%33.11%35.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.753.1040.00%36.42%36.36%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.11%3.69fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.669%
Kelly -0.926%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%27.12%27.16%28.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.423.6033.33%29.29%29.20%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Holstein Kiel (Local): 39.74%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 33.16%; Draw: 27.11%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV +2.78%E +0.898%K +1.33%G +0.037%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 06:29
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.15%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.60%EV +1.46%E +0.476%K +0.707%G +0.010%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -3.76%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-14 06:30
Suprabets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.03%EV -0.200%E -0.067%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 06:28
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.51%EV -3.05%E -1.25%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.14%EV -0.532%E -0.177%K -0.266%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.35%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 04:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.51%EV -3.05%E -1.25%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.14%EV -0.532%E -0.177%K -0.266%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.35%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 04:34
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -0.532%E -0.177%K -0.266%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 06:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.73%EV -9.01%E -3.93%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.83%EV -2.85%E -0.974%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 06:29
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 06:30
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -9.40%E -4.12%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 06:30
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -2.41%E -0.669%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 06:30
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 05:39
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.47%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 05:50
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.47%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 06:28
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.71%EV -6.22%E -2.64%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.35%EV -6.83%E -2.43%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.93%EV -5.66%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-13 19:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.07%EV -4.24%E -1.76%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%EV -7.16%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -6.47%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 06:29
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.53%EV -5.43%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.60%EV -7.16%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 05:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.17%EV -4.64%E -1.93%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.58%EV -7.16%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.47%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 06:29
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.16%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -2.41%E -0.669%K -0.926%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-13 20:04
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -5.43%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.16%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 05:39
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.16%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 03:20
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.16%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 03:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.16%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 03:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.16%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 03:19
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -5.43%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.36%EV -7.83%E -2.82%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 06:29
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -5.43%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.36%EV -7.83%E -2.82%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 06:29
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -4.64%E -1.93%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -8.82%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 06:30
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.82%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -2.41%E -0.669%K -0.926%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-13 20:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.82%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 05:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.82%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 05:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.02%EV -9.80%E -4.32%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.03%EV -8.82%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.95%EV -8.64%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 06:27
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.61%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -6.47%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 06:29
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-13 20:02
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -12.58%E -5.72%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-14 06:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.37%EV -14.57%E -6.78%K -12.67%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.51%EV -11.47%E -4.30%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.12%EV -13.25%E -4.14%K -6.02%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-14 06:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -0.662%E -0.265%K -0.441%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -12.14%E -4.58%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -3.76%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-13 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -0.662%E -0.265%K -0.441%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -12.14%E -4.58%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -3.76%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-13 18:20
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -1.46%E -0.587%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -1.46%E -0.587%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -1.46%E -0.587%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 18:20
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -1.46%E -0.587%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 18:20
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -1.46%E -0.587%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 18:20
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -1.46%E -0.587%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 18:20
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -1.46%E -0.587%K -0.984%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 18:20
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.41%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-14 05:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.41%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-14 05:49
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.26%EV -12.58%E -5.72%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.68%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -7.83%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-13 20:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.02%EV -16.56%E -7.88%K -15.05%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.96%EV -12.80%E -4.87%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.02%EV -18.67%E -6.22%K -9.34%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-13 20:04
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -13.13%E -5.01%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-14 05:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -13.13%E -5.01%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-14 05:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -13.79%E -5.31%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-13 18:20
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -13.79%E -5.31%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-13 18:20
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -2.65%E -1.08%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -13.79%E -5.31%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -6.47%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-13 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -10.60%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -13.79%E -5.31%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -10.54%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-14 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.86%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.59%EV -17.11%E -6.84%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.56%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-13 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.86%EV -6.62%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.59%EV -17.11%E -6.84%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.56%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-13 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.22%EV -16.56%E -7.88%K -15.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.79%EV -17.11%E -6.84%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.99%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%18.4%2026-03-13 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-03-14 06:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-03-14 06:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-03-14 06:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-03-14 06:30
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-03-14 06:30
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.76%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.17%2.2%2026-03-14 06:30