L’École des cotes

Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-17 16:30 UTC

Score final : Holstein Kiel 3–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prévision 41.62%2.40cote équitable
EV -0.955%
Avantage -0.401%
Kelly -0.692%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.38

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.10%41.63%41.67%44.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.972.192.202.3850.76%45.72%45.45%42.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visiteur)

Prévision 32.25%3.10cote équitable
EV +3.19%
Avantage +0.997%
Kelly +1.45%
Croissance +0.046%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.25%32.15%32.27%33.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.632.922.893.2038.02%34.28%34.60%31.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.14%3.83cote équitable
EV -1.99%
Avantage -0.529%
Kelly -0.722%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.24%26.22%26.06%27.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.503.553.7532.26%28.55%28.17%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 44.42%EV -11.78%E -5.55%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV +3.19%E +0.997%K +1.45%G +0.046%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 15:39
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.42%EV -11.78%E -5.55%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV +3.19%E +0.997%K +1.45%G +0.046%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 15:39
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV +1.58%E +0.501%K +0.734%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:50
Unibet (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV +1.58%E +0.501%K +0.734%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:50
BetRivers2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV +1.58%E +0.501%K +0.734%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV +1.58%E +0.501%K +0.734%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 15:39
Casumo2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV +1.58%E +0.501%K +0.734%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:50
TABtouch2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV +1.58%E +0.501%K +0.734%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:50
Grosvenor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV +1.58%E +0.501%K +0.734%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:50
Unibet (NL)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV +1.58%E +0.501%K +0.734%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:50
betPARX2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV +1.58%E +0.501%K +0.734%G +0.012%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:50
LeoVegas2.08I 48.08%NM 44.15%EV -13.44%E -6.46%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -0.033%E -0.011%K -0.016%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 16:50
Pinnacle2.38I 42.02%NM 40.66%EV -0.955%E -0.401%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.15%EV -2.94%E -0.975%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.18%EV -6.95%E -1.95%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-17 16:24
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -3.26%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 16:19
Virgin Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 44.10%EV -15.94%E -7.89%K -15.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -3.26%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-10 16:50
LiveScore Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 44.10%EV -15.94%E -7.89%K -15.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -3.26%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-10 16:50
PMU (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 44.55%EV -18.02%E -9.15%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -3.26%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -12.44%E -3.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-17 15:40
Codere (IT)2.26I 44.25%NM 41.77%EV -5.95%E -2.63%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -4.87%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 16:09
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -4.87%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 16:23
LowVig.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 40.12%EV -1.79%E -0.757%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.43%EV -5.84%E -2.00%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 16:19
BetOnline.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 40.12%EV -1.79%E -0.757%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.43%EV -5.84%E -2.00%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 16:19
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.56%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.96%EV -6.48%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -1.99%E -0.529%K -0.722%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-17 16:19
1xBet2.27I 44.05%NM 41.82%EV -5.53%E -2.44%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%EV -6.48%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.45%EV -2.51%E -0.672%K -0.919%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 16:24
DraftKings2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -6.48%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 16:19
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.48%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 16:04
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.48%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 16:15
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.48%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-17 16:24
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -6.48%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 16:05
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -7.13%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -3.29%E -0.890%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 16:04
Suprabets2.27I 44.05%NM 41.19%EV -5.53%E -2.44%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -7.13%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 16:06
Marathon Bet2.22I 45.05%NM 42.03%EV -7.61%E -3.43%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -7.13%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -4.60%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 16:09
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -7.13%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 16:03
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -7.61%E -3.43%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.17%EV -7.13%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 16:09
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -7.61%E -3.43%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.17%EV -7.13%E -2.47%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -7.21%E -2.03%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 16:04
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.21%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.30%EV -7.45%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 16:09
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -8.10%E -2.84%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 16:19
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -8.10%E -2.84%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 16:19
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -4.28%E -1.86%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -8.10%E -2.84%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -12.44%E -3.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 16:19
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 16:23
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -4.60%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 16:09
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -5.91%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 16:19
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-17 16:19
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-17 16:19
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-17 16:20
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-17 16:19
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-17 16:09
Betclic (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 42.10%EV -11.78%E -5.55%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.02%EV -10.35%E -3.02%K -4.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-17 16:09
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.40%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-17 16:14
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -11.32%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -13.75%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-17 16:09
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -11.32%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-17 16:04
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -11.32%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-17 16:05
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -11.32%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-17 16:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -11.32%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-17 16:05
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.59%EV -12.93%E -4.79%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -9.83%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-17 16:09
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 41.94%EV -13.86%E -6.69%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.15%EV -12.93%E -4.79%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.91%EV -12.44%E -3.71%K -5.29%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-17 16:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -12.61%E -6.00%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -15.19%E -5.78%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -18.97%E -6.12%K -9.04%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-17 16:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 41.22%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.18%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.60%0.2%2026-04-17 16:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 41.22%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.18%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.60%0.2%2026-04-17 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 41.00%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-04-17 16:24
Matchbook2.42I 41.32%NM 41.00%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-04-17 16:24
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-04-17 16:24
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 42.32%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%4.1%2026-04-17 16:20