Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hertha Berlin v Holstein Kiel

Inicio: 2026-04-25 11:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Predicción 47.33%2.11momio equitativo
EV -2.98%
Ventaja -1.45%
Kelly -2.83%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.41%47.49%47.29%49.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.801.931.922.0555.56%51.94%52.08%48.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Holstein Kiel (Visitante)

Predicción 27.77%3.60momio equitativo
EV +2.75%
Ventaja +0.743%
Kelly +1.02%
Crecimiento +0.028%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.50%27.60%27.82%29.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.373.353.7033.33%29.70%29.85%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.90%4.02momio equitativo
EV -0.396%
Ventaja -0.099%
Kelly -0.132%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.62%24.91%24.89%26.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.673.704.0030.77%27.27%27.03%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hertha Berlin (Local): 47.33%; Holstein Kiel (Visitante): 27.77%; Empate: 24.90%. Para Holstein Kiel (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.60. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.75%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -10.07%E -5.30%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV +2.75%E +0.743%K +1.02%G +0.028%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-20 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.90%EV -9.13%E -4.75%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV +1.36%E +0.373%K +0.514%G +0.007%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 11:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.90%EV -9.13%E -4.75%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV +1.36%E +0.373%K +0.514%G +0.007%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 11:05
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -10.07%E -5.30%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-18 11:05
TABtouch🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.12%EV -10.55%E -5.58%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 11:05
Casumo🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.12%EV -10.55%E -5.58%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 11:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.12%EV -10.55%E -5.58%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 11:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.12%EV -10.55%E -5.58%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 11:05
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.12%EV -10.55%E -5.58%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 11:05
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.12%EV -10.55%E -5.58%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -11.02%E -5.86%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:05
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -11.02%E -5.86%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -0.028%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 11:05
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -11.02%E -5.86%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -1.42%E -0.399%K -0.555%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 11:05
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -9.60%E -5.03%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -2.80%E -0.801%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.84%EV -13.86%E -7.62%K -16.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -4.19%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-18 11:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.84%EV -13.86%E -7.62%K -16.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -4.19%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-18 11:05
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.14%EV -6.29%E -3.18%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -0.396%E -0.099%K -0.132%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 19:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.34%E -2.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 18:40
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.34%E -2.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-24 03:49
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -2.89%E -0.740%K -0.995%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 18:58
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.54%EV -6.76%E -3.43%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.91%EV -6.37%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 21:00
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-24 03:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.80%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.79%EV -6.37%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 20:54
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -14.81%E -8.23%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -5.58%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-18 11:05
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.46%EV -2.98%E -1.45%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.35%EV -6.69%E -1.99%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.20%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 03:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.94%EV -5.34%E -2.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -6.97%E -2.08%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 18:39
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -5.34%E -2.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.97%E -2.08%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 18:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.40%E -2.18%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.97%E -2.08%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 01:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -4.40%E -2.18%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.97%E -2.08%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 01:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.45%EV -6.29%E -3.18%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -2.89%E -0.740%K -0.995%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 18:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 19:00
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -10.07%E -5.30%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -2.89%E -0.740%K -0.995%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 18:59
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 18:38
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 18:39
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -9.60%E -5.03%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 19:00
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -9.60%E -5.03%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 18:39
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 18:40
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.36%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 18:39
Suprabets🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.60%EV -6.76%E -3.43%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -9.75%E -3.00%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:04
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -9.75%E -3.00%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 18:35
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.85%EV -7.71%E -3.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.75%E -3.00%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 18:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.28%EV -10.55%E -5.58%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.75%EV -10.58%E -3.29%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.96%EV -10.85%E -3.03%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 18:43
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -5.34%E -2.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -11.14%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-24 03:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.60%E -5.03%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -11.14%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-24 03:50
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.60%E -5.03%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -11.14%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-24 03:50
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.60%E -5.03%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -11.14%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-24 03:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.60%E -5.03%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -11.14%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-24 03:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.50%EV -11.97%E -6.43%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -11.14%E -3.48%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.89%EV -11.60%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 18:39
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -4.40%E -2.18%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -12.52%E -3.98%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-24 03:34
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -12.44%E -6.73%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -13.91%E -4.49%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-23 19:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.49%EV -13.39%E -7.32%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.03%EV -13.91%E -4.49%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.48%EV -11.60%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.44%EV -13.39%E -7.32%K -16.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.41%EV -13.91%E -4.49%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.15%EV -19.07%E -5.87%K -8.48%G +0.000%17.7%2026-04-23 18:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 46.75%EV -12.91%E -7.02%K -15.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.67%EV -16.69%E -5.56%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%16.3%2026-04-23 18:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.06I 48.54%NM 47.24%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.81%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%2.8%2026-04-24 00:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%2.8%2026-04-24 02:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%2.8%2026-04-23 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%2.8%2026-04-24 01:30
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 46.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-04-24 01:30
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 47.44%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%5.4%2026-04-24 03:40