Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greuther Fürth v FC Schalke 04

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Prediction 20.51%4.88fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.512%
Kelly +0.640%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.08%20.56%20.52%21.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.434.385.0025.00%22.56%22.86%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Schalke 04 (Visit)

Prediction 55.17%1.81fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.07%55.12%55.19%56.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.681.691.7665.79%59.39%59.00%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.32%4.11fair odd
EV -0.287%
Edge -0.070%
Kelly -0.093%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.57%24.32%24.30%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.753.754.1030.77%26.70%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greuther Fürth (Local): 20.51%; FC Schalke 04 (Visit): 55.17%; Draw: 24.32%. For Greuther Fürth (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV +2.56%E +0.512%K +0.640%G +0.016%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.13%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -6.37%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-28 10:40
Pinnacle🎯4.82I 20.75%NM 20.02%EV -1.13%E -0.234%K -0.296%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.10%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.88%EV -1.75%E -0.432%K -0.574%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 19:04
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.14%EV -2.57%E -0.540%K -0.684%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.94%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -2.72%E -0.680%K -0.906%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-28 19:14
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -2.57%E -0.540%K -0.684%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.89%EV -6.77%E -4.00%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.15%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 18:53
LowVig.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%EV -3.59%E -0.764%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.86%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV -0.287%E -0.070%K -0.093%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 19:14
BetOnline.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%EV -3.59%E -0.764%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.86%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV -0.287%E -0.070%K -0.093%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 19:15
Betr (AU)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -3.59%E -0.764%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.39%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -8.80%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 19:00
FanDuel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -3.59%E -0.764%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.01%EV -8.97%E -5.44%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.58%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 19:10
1xBet🎯4.66I 21.46%NM 20.36%EV -4.41%E -0.947%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.81%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.84%EV -3.21%E -0.805%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 19:19
Marathon Bet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 20.09%EV -4.62%E -0.993%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.59%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.32%EV -6.61%E -1.72%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 19:24
DraftKings🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.64%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.15%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 19:15
Tipico (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.64%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.15%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 19:19
Suprabets🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -5.64%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.58%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.13%EV -5.88%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 19:02
Everygame🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.64%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -6.37%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 19:04
Bet Victor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.64%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -7.58%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-28 19:04
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -5.64%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -8.42%E -5.07%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -7.58%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 18:54
Codere (IT)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.68%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -6.37%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 19:14
Bovada🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -6.37%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 19:17
Unibet (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.58%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 19:14
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.80%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:49
William Hill🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.80%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.80%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.80%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:49
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -8.97%E -5.44%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -12.45%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 18:54
NordicBet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.72%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.66%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -7.58%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 19:14
Betsson🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.72%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.66%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -7.58%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 19:14
theScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -9.75%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -8.80%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-28 07:29
Svenska Spel🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -10.77%E -2.48%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -2.91%E -1.65%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -8.80%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 19:10
ATG (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -10.77%E -2.48%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -2.91%E -1.65%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -8.80%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 19:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -10.77%E -2.48%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -11.18%E -6.94%K -18.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 19:14
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -11.18%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -7.58%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 18:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -11.18%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -10.63%E -6.56%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -12.45%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-28 18:54
Neds🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -11.18%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -10.63%E -6.56%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -12.45%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-28 18:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.44%EV -11.18%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.97%EV -11.18%E -6.94%K -18.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -12.45%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-28 18:55
Coral🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.44%EV -11.18%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.97%EV -11.18%E -6.94%K -18.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -12.45%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-28 18:54
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.37%EV -11.18%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.44%EV -10.63%E -6.56%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -14.88%E -4.25%K -5.95%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-28 19:09
Unibet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.34%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.34%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 19:09
Casumo🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.34%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.34%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 19:09
Grosvenor🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.34%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 19:09
TABtouch🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.34%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 19:10
betPARX🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.34%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 19:09
Winamax (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -5.15%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 19:14
BetRivers🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -12.82%E -3.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.20%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -12.82%E -3.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.20%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 19:09
LeoVegas🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -12.82%E -3.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.34%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -10.01%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 19:09
Betclic (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.96%EV -12.82%E -3.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.64%EV -10.08%E -6.18%K -16.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -11.23%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-28 19:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -13.85%E -3.30%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.07%EV -10.63%E -6.56%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.46%EV -20.96%E -6.45%K -9.32%G +0.000%16.3%2026-02-28 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -15.90%E -3.88%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.26%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -13.66%E -3.85%K -5.36%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-28 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -15.90%E -3.88%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.26%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -13.66%E -3.85%K -5.36%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-28 19:09
NetBet (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.05%EV -15.90%E -3.88%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 54.63%EV -12.84%E -8.12%K -22.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.31%EV -13.66%E -3.85%K -5.36%G +0.000%15.9%2026-02-28 19:19
PMU (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 20.32%EV -15.90%E -3.88%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 54.81%EV -16.15%E -10.62%K -31.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.87%EV -18.53%E -5.53%K -7.88%G +0.000%20.0%2026-02-28 18:54
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -17.95%E -4.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.09%EV -10.63%E -6.56%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.01%EV -11.23%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-28 19:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-02-28 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-02-28 19:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-02-28 19:20
Matchbook5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-02-28 19:14
Smarkets4.90I 20.41%NM 20.03%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-02-28 19:15