Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 11:30 UTC

Final: Greuther Fürth 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Prediction 36.61%2.73fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.677%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.93%36.68%36.62%37.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.542.542.7042.55%39.33%39.45%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 37.28%2.68fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.742%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.65%37.21%37.26%38.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.452.452.6343.86%40.74%40.82%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.417%
Kelly -0.568%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.68%26.12%26.13%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.503.503.7733.33%28.59%28.57%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greuther Fürth (Local): 36.61%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 37.28%; Draw: 26.11%. For Greuther Fürth (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -1.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -1.15%E -0.426%K -0.677%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 10:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -1.15%E -0.426%K -0.677%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 10:45
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -9.41%E -3.87%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:41
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -9.41%E -3.87%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:41
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -9.41%E -3.87%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:41
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -9.41%E -3.87%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:41
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -9.41%E -3.87%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:41
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -9.41%E -3.87%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:41
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -9.41%E -3.87%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 10:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.96%EV -3.35%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.67%EV -6.05%E -2.40%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 11:21
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.96%EV -3.35%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.67%EV -6.05%E -2.40%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 11:16
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.12%EV -3.71%E -1.41%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.49%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 10:45
LeoVegas🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.12%EV -3.71%E -1.41%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.49%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 10:44
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.12%EV -3.71%E -1.41%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.49%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 10:45
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.93%E -1.93%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 08:49
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.33%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -4.71%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 04:04
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 09:40
Pinnacle🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.52%EV -5.54%E -2.15%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.81%EV -1.95%E -0.742%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.68%EV -1.57%E -0.417%K -0.568%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -3.40%E -0.919%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 06:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 06:02
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.93%E -1.93%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 11:10
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.25%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 11:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 11:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 11:01
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 11:10
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.96%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.43%EV -13.51%E -5.82%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -12.54%E -3.74%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-03 10:41
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.96%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.43%EV -13.51%E -5.82%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -12.54%E -3.74%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-03 10:45
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.65%EV -7.74%E -3.07%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 06:05
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.65%EV -7.74%E -3.07%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 06:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.07%E -1.18%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 11:15
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -4.93%E -1.93%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 11:05
Suprabets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.80%EV -5.31%E -2.09%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.82%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 11:08
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -3.07%E -1.18%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 11:10
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -3.07%E -1.18%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-03 11:00
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 11:25
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.80%E -2.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 08:51
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 06:05
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 10:55
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 10:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 10:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 10:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 09:40
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 09:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 09:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 09:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.18%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.57%EV -15.00%E -6.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.25%EV -12.54%E -3.74%K -5.34%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-03 10:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.48%EV -8.84%E -3.55%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.60%EV -4.93%E -1.93%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.27%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.05%EV -10.53%E -4.39%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -3.40%E -0.919%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 06:01
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -11.23%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 11:10
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -8.66%E -3.54%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -13.84%E -4.19%K -6.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 11:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -12.39%E -5.27%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 11:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -12.39%E -5.27%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 11:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -12.13%E -5.06%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -14.25%E -6.20%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -21.68%E -7.23%K -10.84%G +0.000%18.5%2026-05-03 10:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.13%EV -13.96%E -5.94%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.94%EV -14.25%E -6.20%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.93%EV -8.62%E -2.46%K -3.45%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-03 06:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.99%EV -13.96%E -5.94%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 36.67%EV -11.64%E -4.91%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.34%EV -13.84%E -4.19%K -6.02%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-03 11:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.89%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.89%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.7%2026-05-03 11:25
Matchbook2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.7%2026-05-03 11:25
Smarkets2.66I 37.59%NM 36.78%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.78%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.44%2.2%2026-05-03 11:25
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 36.52%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.96%4.1%2026-05-03 08:45