Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Heidenheim

Inicio: 2026-09-06 11:30 UTC

Final: Greuther Fürth 0–1 1. FC Heidenheim

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Predicción 29.81%3.35momio equitativo
EV +1.34%
Ventaja +0.395%
Kelly +0.560%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.92%30.08%29.69%32.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.703.023.023.4037.04%33.13%33.06%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

1. FC Heidenheim (Visitante)

Predicción 45.67%2.19momio equitativo
EV -0.430%
Ventaja -0.197%
Kelly -0.364%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.52%45.48%45.62%47.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.922.062.052.1852.08%48.62%48.78%45.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.52%4.08momio equitativo
EV -0.699%
Ventaja -0.173%
Kelly -0.229%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.58%24.44%24.68%25.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.743.754.0528.57%26.76%26.67%24.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Greuther Fürth (Local): 29.81%; 1. FC Heidenheim (Visitante): 45.67%; Empate: 24.52%. Para Greuther Fürth (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.35. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.40, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.34%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV +1.34%E +0.395%K +0.560%G +0.008%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.23%EV -8.19%E -4.08%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.85%EV -6.34%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 11:20
Pinnacle🎯3.31I 30.21%NM 29.25%EV -1.34%E -0.405%K -0.580%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.55%EV -5.00%E -2.40%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.20%EV -1.92%E -0.481%K -0.642%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 11:15
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -1.64%E -0.496%K -0.712%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -4.38%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 11:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.62%E -1.44%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.75%EV -5.91%E -2.87%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 11:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.62%E -1.44%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 11:15
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.62%E -1.44%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 11:24
Suprabets🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 29.29%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.28%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.42%EV -7.07%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 11:05
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -6.11%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -3.15%E -0.798%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 11:04
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -6.11%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -8.05%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 11:20
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -6.11%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.72%EV -7.74%E -3.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -9.28%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 11:15
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -6.11%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -9.28%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 11:23
Marathon Bet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.68%EV -6.41%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.46%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -8.05%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 11:00
Bet Victor🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.76%EV -7.00%E -2.24%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -4.38%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 11:19
betano_uk🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.76%EV -7.00%E -2.24%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -4.38%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 11:19
LowVig.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.19%EV -2.71%E -1.27%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.77%EV -0.699%E -0.173%K -0.229%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 11:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.19%EV -2.71%E -1.27%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.77%EV -0.699%E -0.173%K -0.229%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 11:00
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.37%E -3.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -1.92%E -0.481%K -0.642%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 11:15
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -4.08%E -1.94%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 11:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -4.38%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 11:15
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.28%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 11:15
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.19%EV -7.74%E -3.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 11:15
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.19%EV -7.74%E -3.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 11:15
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.94%EV -9.56%E -4.83%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.72%EV -9.77%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 11:14
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 11:15
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 11:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.60%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 11:15
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -9.09%E -2.98%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.28%EV -7.74%E -3.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -9.28%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 11:20
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -10.58%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -1.80%E -0.837%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -1.92%E -0.481%K -0.642%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 11:10
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.58%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 11:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.58%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 11:20
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.58%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.18%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 11:20
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.58%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.18%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.58%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.18%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 11:10
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.58%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.18%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.58%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.65%E -4.33%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.18%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 11:10
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -10.58%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.88%EV -11.85%E -6.14%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 11:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.28%EV -12.07%E -4.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.58%EV -10.48%E -5.35%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -9.28%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 11:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 29.81%EV -12.96%E -4.44%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.33%EV -12.31%E -6.41%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.87%EV -14.18%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-06 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.56%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -4.08%E -1.94%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -4.38%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.56%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -4.08%E -1.94%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -4.38%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 11:10
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -0.430%E -0.197%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 11:00
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -0.430%E -0.197%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 10:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -0.430%E -0.197%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 10:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -0.430%E -0.197%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 10:54
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -0.430%E -0.197%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -0.430%E -0.197%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 10:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -0.430%E -0.197%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 10:54
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.48%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -0.430%E -0.197%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 10:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.68%EV -4.08%E -1.94%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.05%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.78%EV -18.03%E -6.56%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.52%EV -3.17%E -1.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.70%EV -10.51%E -2.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 10:54
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.78%EV -18.03%E -6.56%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.52%EV -3.17%E -1.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.70%EV -10.51%E -2.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 10:54
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.78%EV -18.03%E -6.56%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.52%EV -3.17%E -1.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.70%EV -10.51%E -2.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 10:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.81%EV -19.52%E -7.23%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.59%EV -5.00%E -2.40%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.81%EV -19.52%E -7.23%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.59%EV -5.00%E -2.40%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 10:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.81%EV -19.52%E -7.23%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.59%EV -5.00%E -2.40%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 10:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 30.01%2.22I 45.05%NM 45.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.98%0.1%2026-09-06 11:10
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.93%0.3%2026-09-06 11:25
Matchbook◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.76%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.32%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%0.3%2026-09-06 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-09-06 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-09-06 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-09-06 11:20