Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Dynamo Dresden

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prediction 40.34%2.48fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.74%40.44%40.34%42.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.252.302.4048.31%44.39%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dynamo Dresden (Visit)

Prediction 33.03%3.03fair odd
EV +0.752%
Edge +0.247%
Kelly +0.367%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.75%32.96%33.04%33.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.832.803.0540.00%35.35%35.71%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.62%3.76fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.405%
Kelly -0.555%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.45%26.59%26.63%28.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.453.503.7033.33%28.95%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local): 40.34%; Dynamo Dresden (Visit): 33.03%; Draw: 26.62%. For Dynamo Dresden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.752%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.72%EV -11.24%E -5.11%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV +0.752%E +0.247%K +0.367%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -5.49%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 08:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.72%EV -11.24%E -5.11%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV +0.752%E +0.247%K +0.367%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -5.49%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 08:45
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:45
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:45
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:44
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:44
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:44
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -12.45%E -5.74%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 08:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -12.45%E -5.74%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 08:44
LeoVegas🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.40%EV -12.86%E -5.95%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -2.55%E -0.865%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 08:45
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%EV -3.17%E -1.32%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%EV -3.54%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.79%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-23 21:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.19%EV -4.79%E -2.03%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.20%E -1.45%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 21:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.19%EV -4.79%E -2.03%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.20%E -1.45%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 21:14
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -4.86%E -1.69%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -1.50%E -0.405%K -0.555%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 13:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -15.28%E -7.27%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.95%EV -4.86%E -1.69%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-21 08:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -15.28%E -7.27%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.95%EV -4.86%E -1.69%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-21 08:45
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.03%EV -5.59%E -2.39%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.75%EV -5.52%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.23%EV -8.42%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 22:35
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -5.19%E -2.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 16:35
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -5.19%E -2.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 09:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.32%EV -5.59%E -2.39%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.58%EV -5.49%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 15:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -5.19%E -2.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:39
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -5.49%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 22:41
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 15:59
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 00:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -6.40%E -2.76%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.71%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -8.42%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 22:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.49%EV -16.49%E -7.96%K -15.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.86%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.65%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-21 08:45
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -3.17%E -1.32%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 07:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.79%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -2.83%E -0.775%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:00
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 16:00
Suprabets🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.09%EV -6.80%E -2.95%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.07%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.84%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:04
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.19%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 21:13
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 21:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 21:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 21:15
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 21:14
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -8.17%E -2.94%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 16:00
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -8.17%E -2.94%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 15:59
SportsBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.39%EV -4.38%E -1.85%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 07:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 09:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 09:55
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.19%E -2.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 16:49
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 01:04
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-22 02:23
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -11.24%E -5.11%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.88%EV -10.15%E -3.73%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.46%EV -10.02%E -2.96%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-23 16:00
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 07:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:04
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:04
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.22%EV -12.45%E -5.74%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.93%EV -12.46%E -4.70%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.85%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-24 01:04
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -13.12%E -4.99%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 07:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.24%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.93%EV -15.76%E -6.18%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.83%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-23 15:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.74%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.96%EV -17.42%E -6.97%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.30%EV -20.13%E -6.71%K -10.07%G +0.000%17.8%2026-04-23 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.40%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.29%1.4%2026-04-24 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.40%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.29%1.4%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.40%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.29%1.4%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.22%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.61%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%1.9%2026-04-24 03:50
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-04-24 02:15
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 40.40%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.99%4.0%2026-04-24 00:15