L’École des cotes

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Dynamo Dresden

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-24 16:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prévision 40.34%2.48cote équitable
EV -3.17%
Avantage -1.32%
Kelly -2.27%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.74%40.44%40.34%42.72%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.072.252.302.4048.31%44.39%43.48%41.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Dynamo Dresden (Visiteur)

Prévision 33.03%3.03cote équitable
EV +0.752%
Avantage +0.247%
Kelly +0.367%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 3.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.75%32.96%33.04%33.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.832.803.0540.00%35.35%35.71%32.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.62%3.76cote équitable
EV -1.50%
Avantage -0.405%
Kelly -0.555%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.45%26.59%26.63%28.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.453.503.7033.33%28.95%28.57%27.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.72%EV -11.24%E -5.11%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV +0.752%E +0.247%K +0.367%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -5.49%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 08:45
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.72%EV -11.24%E -5.11%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV +0.752%E +0.247%K +0.367%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -5.49%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 08:45
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:45
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:45
Unibet (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:45
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:45
Grosvenor2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:44
TABtouch2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:44
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -12.05%E -5.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 08:44
BetRivers2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -12.45%E -5.74%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 08:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -12.45%E -5.74%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -0.899%E -0.300%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 08:44
LeoVegas2.16I 46.30%NM 42.40%EV -12.86%E -5.95%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -2.55%E -0.865%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-21 08:45
Pinnacle2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%EV -3.17%E -1.32%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%EV -3.54%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.79%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-23 21:15
BetOnline.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 40.19%EV -4.79%E -2.03%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.20%E -1.45%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 21:14
LowVig.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 40.19%EV -4.79%E -2.03%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.20%E -1.45%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 21:14
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -4.86%E -1.69%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -1.50%E -0.405%K -0.555%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 13:04
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -15.28%E -7.27%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.95%EV -4.86%E -1.69%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-21 08:44
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -15.28%E -7.27%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.95%EV -4.86%E -1.69%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-21 08:45
1xBet2.34I 42.74%NM 40.03%EV -5.59%E -2.39%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.75%EV -5.52%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.23%EV -8.42%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 22:35
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -5.19%E -2.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 16:35
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -5.19%E -2.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 09:55
Codere (IT)2.34I 42.74%NM 40.32%EV -5.59%E -2.39%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.58%EV -5.49%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 15:59
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -5.19%E -2.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 17:39
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -5.49%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 22:41
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 15:59
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 00:04
Marathon Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -6.40%E -2.76%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.71%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -8.42%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 22:34
PMU (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 42.49%EV -16.49%E -7.96%K -15.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.86%EV -5.85%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.65%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-21 08:45
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -3.17%E -1.32%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 07:24
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.79%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -2.83%E -0.775%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:00
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 16:00
Suprabets2.31I 43.29%NM 40.09%EV -6.80%E -2.95%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.07%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.84%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:04
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.19%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 21:13
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 21:14
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 21:14
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 21:15
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 21:14
NordicBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -8.17%E -2.94%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 16:00
Betsson2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -8.17%E -2.94%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 15:59
SportsBet2.37I 42.19%NM 39.39%EV -4.38%E -1.85%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 07:24
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 09:55
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.16%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 09:55
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.19%E -2.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 16:49
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 01:04
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-22 02:23
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 09:55
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -9.16%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:35
Betclic (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -11.24%E -5.11%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.88%EV -10.15%E -3.73%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.46%EV -10.02%E -2.96%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-23 16:00
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 07:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:04
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:04
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -10.81%E -4.00%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 13:05
NetBet (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 40.22%EV -12.45%E -5.74%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.93%EV -12.46%E -4.70%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.85%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-24 01:04
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -7.21%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -13.12%E -4.99%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 07:24
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.24%EV -13.26%E -6.17%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.93%EV -15.76%E -6.18%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.83%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-23 15:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 37.74%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.96%EV -17.42%E -6.97%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.30%EV -20.13%E -6.71%K -10.07%G +0.000%17.8%2026-04-23 16:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.40%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.29%1.4%2026-04-24 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.40%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.29%1.4%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.40%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.29%1.4%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.22%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.61%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%1.9%2026-04-24 03:50
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-04-24 02:15
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 40.40%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.99%4.0%2026-04-24 00:15