Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden v VfL Bochum

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 11:00 UTC

Final: Dynamo Dresden 2–0 VfL Bochum

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Prediction 40.88%2.45fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.73%40.85%40.90%43.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.272.282.3647.62%44.14%43.86%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Bochum (Visit)

Prediction 33.25%3.01fair odd
EV -0.917%
Edge -0.308%
Kelly -0.463%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.23%33.28%33.22%34.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.762.802.9839.22%36.20%35.71%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.87%3.87fair odd
EV +0.118%
Edge +0.030%
Kelly +0.041%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.54%25.87%25.88%27.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.543.503.8732.26%28.28%28.57%25.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dynamo Dresden (Local): 40.88%; VfL Bochum (Visit): 33.25%; Draw: 25.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.865. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.870, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.118%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.16%EV -10.06%E -4.57%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.30%EV -2.25%E -0.764%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.54%EV +0.118%E +0.030%K +0.041%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 10:50
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.24%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -2.99%E -0.796%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 10:50
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -3.93%E -1.67%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -8.56%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -4.28%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 10:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -3.58%E -1.23%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -4.28%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 10:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.28%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 10:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.48%EV -4.75%E -2.04%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.84%EV -5.57%E -1.53%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 10:01
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.82%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -5.57%E -1.53%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 10:00
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.95%EV -3.52%E -1.49%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.43%EV -0.917%E -0.308%K -0.463%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.62%EV -6.09%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-18 10:50
Suprabets🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.96%EV -6.79%E -2.98%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.24%EV -6.57%E -2.34%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.80%EV -6.35%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 10:47
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.22%EV -3.52%E -1.49%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.42%EV -5.57%E -1.96%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-18 09:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.22%EV -3.52%E -1.49%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.42%EV -5.57%E -1.96%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-18 10:00
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.24%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 10:49
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.24%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 06:59
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.24%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 10:50
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -4.24%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 10:50
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 10:50
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 10:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 10:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 10:50
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -12.89%E -4.92%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 10:00
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -12.89%E -4.92%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -6.87%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 10:00
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -6.79%E -2.98%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.79%EV -9.56%E -3.52%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -8.16%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 10:00
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -6.79%E -2.98%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.79%EV -9.56%E -3.52%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -8.16%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 10:00
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -4.24%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 10:49
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 10:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 10:50
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 10:50
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 10:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 10:50
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 10:50
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 10:50
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -6.79%E -2.98%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 10:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -6.79%E -2.98%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 10:50
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -6.79%E -2.98%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 10:50
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.56%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-18 10:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -13.55%E -5.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 10:00
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -13.55%E -5.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 10:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -13.55%E -5.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 10:00
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -13.55%E -5.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 10:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -12.11%E -5.63%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-18 10:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.90%EV -10.88%E -4.99%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.40%EV -11.22%E -4.20%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.70%EV -10.23%E -2.95%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-18 10:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.55%EV -12.11%E -5.63%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.19%EV -15.21%E -5.97%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -10.75%E -3.12%K -4.39%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-18 10:00
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.90%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -12.04%E -3.54%K -5.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 10:50
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -10.06%E -4.57%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.56%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -12.04%E -3.54%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-18 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -10.06%E -4.57%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -13.33%E -3.98%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-18 10:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -10.06%E -4.57%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -13.33%E -3.98%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-18 10:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.43%EV -10.88%E -4.99%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -11.89%E -4.49%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.31%EV -13.33%E -3.98%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-18 10:50
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.06%E -4.57%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -14.63%E -4.43%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-18 10:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.24%EV -14.15%E -6.74%K -12.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.50%EV -13.55%E -5.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.26%EV -19.80%E -6.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%18.3%2026-04-18 10:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-04-18 10:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.78%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%1.3%2026-04-18 10:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.78%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%1.3%2026-04-18 10:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.78%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%1.3%2026-04-18 10:50
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.75%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.43%2.3%2026-04-18 10:50