Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden v SV Darmstadt 98

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 11:30 UTC

Final: Dynamo Dresden 1–0 SV Darmstadt 98

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Prediction 47.08%2.12fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.81%47.09%47.14%48.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.961.952.0553.19%51.08%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit)

Prediction 27.36%3.66fair odd
EV -0.960%
Edge -0.265%
Kelly -0.366%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.18%27.35%27.35%28.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.383.6231.25%29.74%29.63%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.56%3.91fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.411%
Kelly -0.555%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.65%25.56%25.50%26.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.603.603.8529.41%27.81%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dynamo Dresden (Local): 47.08%; SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit): 27.36%; Draw: 25.56%. For SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.62, with an expected value of -0.960%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.16%EV -3.49%E -1.70%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.71%EV -0.960%E -0.265%K -0.366%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-16 11:25
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.05%EV -4.90%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.85%EV -3.15%E -0.890%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.11%EV -6.95%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 11:20
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -4.90%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 11:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.60%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -2.88%E -0.810%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.59%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 11:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.60%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -2.88%E -0.810%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.59%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 11:20
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.44%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -1.58%E -0.411%K -0.555%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 10:29
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -4.24%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 11:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -5.61%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 11:20
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -5.61%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 11:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 11:18
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 11:25
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.97%E -2.21%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 11:24
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.97%E -2.21%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 11:19
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 11:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.35%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -8.35%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -2.86%E -0.752%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 11:20
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -4.24%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.97%E -2.21%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 11:20
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.23%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 15:14
Suprabets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.18%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -5.61%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.74%EV -7.21%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 11:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.12%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.96%EV -5.34%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.97%E -2.21%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -7.26%E -3.68%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -7.26%E -3.68%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 15:15
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -7.26%E -3.68%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 15:14
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -7.26%E -3.68%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 15:14
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -7.26%E -3.68%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 15:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -7.26%E -3.68%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 15:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -7.26%E -3.68%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 15:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -1.51%E -0.419%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 10:14
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 11:23
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 11:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 11:14
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 11:23
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.97%E -2.21%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 11:19
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.75%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -8.35%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 11:19
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.75%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -8.35%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 11:19
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 11:19
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-16 11:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-16 11:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-16 11:15
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-16 11:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.45%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 11:24
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.45%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.45%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 11:25
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.20%E -4.20%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.45%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 11:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.41%EV -9.61%E -5.01%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -8.35%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.42%EV -8.48%E -2.37%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 11:20
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.11%EV -9.61%E -5.01%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.48%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-16 10:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.24%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -5.42%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 10:40
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -6.98%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-16 11:19
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.04%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -11.08%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 10:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.04%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -11.08%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 10:49
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -9.72%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 11:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.14%EV -10.55%E -5.55%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -12.45%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -7.97%E -2.21%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-16 11:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.70%EV -11.02%E -5.83%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -8.35%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -9.25%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 11:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -11.49%E -6.11%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.45%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 10:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -11.49%E -6.11%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.45%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 10:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -11.49%E -6.11%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.45%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -10.53%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 10:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.92%EV -11.49%E -6.11%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -11.08%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -13.08%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-16 11:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-16 11:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-16 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-16 11:25
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-08-16 11:25
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-08-16 11:25
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%2.1%2026-08-16 09:55