Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 11:00 UTC

Final: Dynamo Dresden 1–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Prediction 59.65%1.68fair odd
EV -0.976%
Edge -0.588%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.51%59.44%59.66%60.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.571.571.6668.97%63.54%63.69%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit)

Prediction 18.47%5.41fair odd
EV +0.107%
Edge +0.020%
Kelly +0.024%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.49%18.59%18.46%20.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.824.805.4223.26%20.75%20.83%18.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.88%4.57fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.345%
Kelly -0.444%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.86%21.97%21.88%24.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.114.104.5028.57%24.30%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dynamo Dresden (Local): 59.65%; 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit): 18.47%; Draw: 21.88%. For 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.107%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.34%EV -4.56%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.81%EV +0.107%E +0.020%K +0.024%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.84%EV -3.30%E -0.747%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 10:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -6.94%E -4.45%K -12.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -0.262%E -0.049%K -0.060%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 10:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -6.94%E -4.45%K -12.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -0.262%E -0.049%K -0.060%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 10:40
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.64%EV -4.56%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 10:50
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.09%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 10:50
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.24%EV -6.94%E -4.45%K -12.40%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:55
Everygame🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 10:55
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV -8.73%E -5.71%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -5.27%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 10:54
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 10:45
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.45%EV -8.13%E -5.28%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.90%EV -3.96%E -0.761%K -0.942%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 10:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.12%EV -4.88%E -0.948%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.63%EV -3.36%E -2.08%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 18.92%EV -7.28%E -1.45%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.45%EV -7.46%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 10:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -1.55%E -0.345%K -0.444%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 10:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.55%EV -5.75%E -3.64%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.63%EV -4.83%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 10:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.40%EV -5.75%E -3.64%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 10:50
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.94%EV -5.15%E -3.24%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 10:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:51
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:51
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:50
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:50
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:45
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 10:55
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.60%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.66%EV -8.57%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -7.02%E -1.65%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.60%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.66%EV -8.57%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -7.02%E -1.65%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:50
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -3.36%E -2.08%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.58%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 10:50
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.83%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -12.27%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -7.02%E -1.65%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.15%EV -9.92%E -6.57%K -19.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.80%EV -12.27%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.05%EV -11.40%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-02 10:55
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -12.27%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 10:51
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.61%EV -8.13%E -5.28%K -15.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -13.19%E -2.81%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.74%E -0.850%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 10:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 59.68%EV -13.50%E -9.31%K -30.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.41%EV -13.19%E -2.81%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.91%EV -13.59%E -3.44%K -4.61%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-02 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.63%EV -0.976%E -0.588%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -15.04%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.63%EV -0.976%E -0.588%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -15.04%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:20
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.97%EV -8.73%E -5.71%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.28%EV -15.04%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 10:45
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -2.77%E -1.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -2.77%E -1.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 10:20
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -3.36%E -2.08%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 10:35
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 10:35
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 10:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 56.76%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.32%EV -23.43%E -6.69%K -9.37%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-02 10:51
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.59%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -18.73%E -4.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-02 10:51
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.71%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.47%EV -19.66%E -4.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-02 10:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.71%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.47%EV -19.66%E -4.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-02 10:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.72%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.45%EV -20.58%E -4.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.84%EV -15.77%E -4.10%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-02 10:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.77%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%0.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Matchbook1.63I 61.35%NM 60.77%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%0.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.49%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%1.4%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.49%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%1.4%2026-05-02 10:55
Smarkets1.62I 61.73%NM 60.44%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.76%2.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 60.24%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.44%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.32%3.1%2026-05-02 10:55