La escuela de los momios

Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Inicio: 2026-05-02 11:00 UTC

Final: Dynamo Dresden 1–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Predicción 59.65%1.68momio equitativo
EV -0.976%
Ventaja -0.588%
Kelly -1.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.51%59.44%59.66%60.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.451.571.571.6668.97%63.54%63.69%60.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visitante)

Predicción 18.47%5.41momio equitativo
EV +0.107%
Ventaja +0.020%
Kelly +0.024%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.49%18.59%18.46%20.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.304.824.805.4223.26%20.75%20.83%18.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 21.88%4.57momio equitativo
EV -1.55%
Ventaja -0.345%
Kelly -0.444%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.86%21.97%21.88%24.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.114.104.5028.57%24.30%24.39%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.60I 62.50%NM 60.34%EV -4.56%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.81%EV +0.107%E +0.020%K +0.024%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.84%EV -3.30%E -0.747%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 10:45
LowVig.ag1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -6.94%E -4.45%K -12.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -0.262%E -0.049%K -0.060%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 10:39
BetOnline.ag1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -6.94%E -4.45%K -12.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -0.262%E -0.049%K -0.060%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 10:40
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.64%EV -4.56%E -2.85%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 10:50
Fanatics1.57I 63.69%NM 60.09%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 10:50
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 60.24%EV -6.94%E -4.45%K -12.40%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:55
Everygame1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 10:55
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV -8.73%E -5.71%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -5.27%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 10:54
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -3.03%E -0.578%K -0.714%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 10:45
FanDuel1.54I 64.94%NM 60.45%EV -8.13%E -5.28%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.90%EV -3.96%E -0.761%K -0.942%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 10:50
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.12%EV -4.88%E -0.948%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 10:50
1xBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.63%EV -3.36%E -2.08%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 18.92%EV -7.28%E -1.45%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.45%EV -7.46%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 10:55
Tipico (DE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -1.55%E -0.345%K -0.444%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 10:50
Unibet (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.55%EV -5.75%E -3.64%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.63%EV -4.83%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 10:50
Codere (IT)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.40%EV -5.75%E -3.64%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%EV -5.93%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 10:50
Bovada1.59I 62.89%NM 58.94%EV -5.15%E -3.24%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 10:45
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:51
SportsBet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:51
Betway1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:45
PointsBet (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:50
betfred_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:50
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:45
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:45
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:45
William Hill1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 10:55
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.60%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.66%EV -8.57%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -7.02%E -1.65%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:50
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 59.60%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.66%EV -8.57%E -1.73%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -7.02%E -1.65%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 10:50
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -3.36%E -2.08%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -8.12%E -1.93%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:40
Unibet (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.58%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 10:50
theScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.83%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -12.27%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -7.02%E -1.65%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 10:50
Betclic (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 59.15%EV -9.92%E -6.57%K -19.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.80%EV -12.27%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.05%EV -11.40%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-02 10:55
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -12.27%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 10:51
Winamax (DE)1.54I 64.94%NM 59.61%EV -8.13%E -5.28%K -15.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -13.19%E -2.81%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.74%E -0.850%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 10:50
NetBet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 59.68%EV -13.50%E -9.31%K -30.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.41%EV -13.19%E -2.81%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.91%EV -13.59%E -3.44%K -4.61%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-02 10:55
ATG (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.63%EV -0.976%E -0.588%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -15.04%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:20
Svenska Spel1.66I 60.24%NM 56.63%EV -0.976%E -0.588%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -15.04%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 10:20
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 57.97%EV -8.73%E -5.71%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.28%EV -15.04%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 10:45
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
Unibet (NL)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
Casumo1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
Grosvenor1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
Unibet (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
betPARX1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -2.17%E -1.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:20
BetRivers1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -2.77%E -1.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -2.77%E -1.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 10:20
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -3.36%E -2.08%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -12.49%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 10:35
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 10:35
Coral1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 10:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 56.76%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.92%EV -16.89%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.32%EV -23.43%E -6.69%K -9.37%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-02 10:51
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.59%EV -10.52%E -7.01%K -21.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -18.73%E -4.26%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -10.30%E -2.51%K -3.32%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-02 10:51
LiveScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 56.71%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.47%EV -19.66%E -4.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-02 10:20
Virgin Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 56.71%EV -6.34%E -4.04%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.47%EV -19.66%E -4.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -14.68%E -3.76%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-02 10:20
PMU (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 56.72%EV -7.54%E -4.86%K -13.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.45%EV -20.58%E -4.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.84%EV -15.77%E -4.10%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-02 10:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.77%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%0.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Matchbook1.63I 61.35%NM 60.77%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%0.9%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.49%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%1.4%2026-05-02 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.49%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%1.4%2026-05-02 10:55
Smarkets1.62I 61.73%NM 60.44%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.80%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.76%2.1%2026-05-02 10:55
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 60.24%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.44%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.32%3.1%2026-05-02 10:55