Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arminia Bielefeld v FC Energie Cottbus

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 11:30 UTC

Final: Arminia Bielefeld 3–0 FC Energie Cottbus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Prediction 59.00%1.69fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -5.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.37%58.94%59.02%60.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.571.6466.67%63.30%63.69%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Energie Cottbus (Visit)

Prediction 19.01%5.26fair odd
EV +0.754%
Edge +0.142%
Kelly +0.175%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.53%19.06%19.02%20.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.784.805.3022.99%20.90%20.83%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.99%4.55fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.302%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.18%22.00%21.96%23.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.144.134.5025.97%24.18%24.24%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arminia Bielefeld (Local): 59.00%; FC Energie Cottbus (Visit): 19.01%; Draw: 21.99%. For FC Energie Cottbus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.26. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.754%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.03%EV -7.96%E -5.10%K -14.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.67%EV +0.754%E +0.142%K +0.175%G +0.001%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 11:20
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.34%EV -9.14%E -5.93%K -16.92%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.53%EV +0.754%E +0.142%K +0.175%G +0.001%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 11:20
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.15%EV -6.78%E -4.29%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.28I 18.94%NM 18.00%EV +0.373%E +0.071%K +0.087%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.85%EV -4.35%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 11:24
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.53%EV -6.78%E -4.29%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -0.197%E -0.038%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.25%EV -1.06%E -0.235%K -0.302%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 11:24
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.55%EV -4.42%E -2.73%K -7.12%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.52%EV -0.957%E -0.184%K -0.227%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -3.26%E -0.740%K -0.957%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-16 11:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.83%EV -7.96%E -5.10%K -14.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -1.15%E -0.221%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 11:25
Suprabets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.77%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -3.05%E -0.598%K -0.744%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.45%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-16 11:04
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.04%EV -5.01%E -3.11%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -4.79%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 11:05
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.95%EV -5.01%E -3.11%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -5.45%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 11:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.95%EV -5.60%E -3.50%K -9.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -6.55%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 10:29
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -6.19%E -3.89%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.45%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 11:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 10:45
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.46%EV -4.79%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 11:24
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.46%EV -4.79%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 11:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.56%EV -7.96%E -5.10%K -14.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -6.55%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 11:24
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -9.73%E -6.36%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 11:25
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.73%E -6.36%K -18.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -4.95%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 11:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.17%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.39%EV -6.47%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -6.55%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 11:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.17%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.39%EV -6.47%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -6.55%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 11:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -5.60%E -3.50%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -6.85%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.45%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 10:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.49%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -6.85%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -6.55%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 11:24
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.71%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -6.85%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 11:23
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.44%EV -6.78%E -4.29%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.04%EV -7.80%E -1.61%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 11:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%EV -5.60%E -3.50%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.26%E -0.740%K -0.957%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 11:24
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 10:34
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 11:04
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 11:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 11:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 11:04
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -9.73%E -6.36%K -18.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -8.75%E -1.82%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -14.25%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 11:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.99%EV -6.78%E -4.29%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -10.65%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -3.26%E -0.740%K -0.957%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 10:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.71%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -10.65%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.93%EV -8.75%E -2.11%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 11:03
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.71%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -10.65%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.93%EV -8.75%E -2.11%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 10:29
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.71%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -10.65%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.93%EV -8.75%E -2.11%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 10:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.18%EV -10.32%E -6.79%K -19.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -10.65%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.68%EV -8.75%E -2.11%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-16 11:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.86%EV -11.50%E -7.66%K -22.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.79%EV -10.65%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.35%EV -13.15%E -3.33%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-16 11:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 11:04
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 11:04
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 11:05
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 11:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 11:04
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 11:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 11:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -3.24%E -1.97%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -12.55%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 11:04
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.89%EV -6.19%E -3.89%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -14.45%E -3.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.66%EV -6.55%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 10:29
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -5.60%E -3.50%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -14.45%E -3.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -14.25%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 11:04
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -14.45%E -3.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-16 11:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -14.45%E -3.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-16 11:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -14.45%E -3.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-16 11:04
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -8.55%E -5.51%K -15.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -14.45%E -3.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -12.05%E -3.01%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-16 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.37%EV -5.60%E -3.50%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%EV -16.36%E -3.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.13%EV -14.25%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 11:04
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.37%EV -5.60%E -3.50%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%EV -16.36%E -3.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.13%EV -14.25%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 11:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.25%EV -9.14%E -5.93%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -16.36%E -3.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 10:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.54%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.41%EV -17.31%E -3.98%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -15.35%E -3.99%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-16 11:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.54%EV -7.37%E -4.69%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.41%EV -17.31%E -3.98%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -15.35%E -3.99%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-16 11:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.70%EV -7.96%E -5.10%K -14.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.33%EV -17.31%E -3.98%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -15.35%E -3.99%K -5.39%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-16 11:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.53%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%0.7%2026-08-16 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.53%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%0.7%2026-08-16 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.67%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98%1.1%2026-08-16 11:25
Matchbook1.61I 62.11%NM 60.97%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.22%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.81%1.9%2026-08-16 11:25
Smarkets1.64I 60.98%NM 59.85%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.85%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.31%1.9%2026-08-16 11:20
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 59.21%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.46%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%3.0%2026-08-16 11:05